Chicago Sky @ New York Liberty
CSAwayChicago Sky33%
@NYLHomeNew York Liberty67%
Model PickNew York Liberty 67%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 9 structured · 4 qualitative
The model favors New York Liberty at 67% — a clear favorite. The main drivers are Season Form (record), Home/Away Split.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Chicago Sky vs New York Liberty by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 9 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 67% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Season Form (record)+5.7
Home/Away Split+4.3
Offensive Rating (ORtg)-0.6
Defensive Rating (DRtg)+4
Effective FG% (eFG%)+1.7
Turnover Rate (TOV%)-0.8
Baseline 50% → final home win66.8%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 9 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | New York Liberty at home — WNBA home-field edge applied | ESPN WNBA |
| Season Form (record) | Home New York Liberty 14-12 vs Away Chicago Sky 9-17 | ESPN WNBA |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record 7-5 · away team's away record 4-10 | ESPN WNBA |
| Offensive Rating (ORtg) | Home 92.9 vs Away 93.8 — points per 100 possessions (pace-adjusted true offense; higher is better) | ESPN WNBA |
| Defensive Rating (DRtg) | Home 90.4 vs Away 96.2 — points allowed per 100 possessions (lower is stronger defense) | ESPN WNBA |
| Effective FG% (eFG%) | Home 53.2% vs Away 49.5% — shooting efficiency weighting made threes 1.5x (pro shooting metric) | ESPN WNBA |
| Turnover Rate (TOV%) | Home 14.8% vs Away 13.6% — turnovers per 100 possessions (lower is better) | ESPN WNBA |
| Offensive Rebound % (OREB%) | Home 22% vs Away 20.7% — reclaiming missed shots (creates second-chance points) | ESPN WNBA |
| Pace (Tempo) | Home 95 vs Away 93.1 possessions/game — game speed (shared context for both teams, outcome-neutral) | ESPN WNBA |
Qualitative & folklore factors 4 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Liberty Playoff Pressure
The New York Liberty are currently slipping out of the playoff picture, making this game crucial for their postseason hopes.
Basis: LLM · news · Liberty slipping right out of the playoff picture
Qualitative · Liberty Travel Fatigue
The New York Liberty recently experienced a 12-hour tarmac delay, which could significantly impact player fatigue and performance.
Basis: LLM · news · New York sat on tarmac for 12 hours
Qualitative · Stewart's Hot Hand
Stewart of the New York Liberty is coming off a 33-point performance, indicating she's in excellent form and could be a key factor in this game.
Basis: LLM · news · Stewart's 33-point outing
Qualitative · Sky's Close Call
The Chicago Sky just played a 'wild ending' game against the Atlanta Dream, which could impact their physical and mental state for this matchup.
Basis: LLM · news · WILD ENDING: Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Sky vs. Liberty (30 Aug, 2026) Live Score
- Liberty-Wings game postponed after New York sat on tarmac for 12 hours
- New York hosts Chicago following Stewart's 33-point outing
- WILD ENDING: Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky 07/19/2026
- How to watch Dallas Wings-New York Liberty WNBA game free stream today
- Where to watch Indiana Fever vs New York Liberty, TV, streaming
- 2026 WNBA championship odds: Lynx a clear favorite behind ROY front-runner Olivia Miles
- Chicago Sky @ New York Liberty Odds
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Chicago Sky vs New York Liberty — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives New York Liberty a 67% chance to win (Home 67% · Away 33%). WNBA · 2026-07-23 08:00 KST.
How was the 66.8% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 9 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 66.8%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.