St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
SLCAwaySt. Louis Cardinals38%
@PPHomePittsburgh Pirates62%
Model PickPittsburgh Pirates 62%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 1 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects the Pittsburgh Pirates with a 62% win probability, making them the pick against the St. Louis Cardinals. This prediction is primarily driven by Pittsburgh's advantages in 'Home Advantage' and 'Last 10 Games Form'. However, the 'Starting Pitcher Matchup' shows a slight edge for St. Louis, which could be a swing factor. The market edge for this game is not calculated.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 62% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation+1.2
Season Win%+0.3
Last 10 Games Form+2.5
Home/Away Split+0.4
Team OBP+2.2
Team SLG+1.8
Team ERA+0.7
Team WHIP+1.2
Starting Pitcher Matchup-0.9
Baseline 50% → final home win61.9%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Pittsburgh Pirates at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 51.7% (751 RS/724 RA) vs Away 48.7% (709/730) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 80-78 (.506) vs Away 77-81 (.487) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 6-4 vs Away 4-6 · Home L1 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 43-37 · away team away 39-38 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .330 vs Away .315 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .405 vs Away .380 (OPS .735/.695) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 4.17 vs Away 4.26 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.30 vs Away 1.35 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Paul Skenes (ERA 3.91) vs Away Kyle Leahy (ERA 3.65) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .313 · K 1465 · BB 555 / Away BABIP .284 · K 1258 · BB 502 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.55 · HR9 0.96 / Away K/BB 2.28 · HR9 1.00 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 1 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Cardinals Bats Awakening
The St. Louis Cardinals offense showed signs of life on Wednesday night, breaking out of a slump to secure a victory over the Pirates and carrying positive momentum into this matchup.
Basis: LLM · news · St. Louis Cardinals Bats Awaken as they Beat Pirat
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/22/2026
- St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates Series Preview
- How to watch Cardinals vs. Pirates: TV channel and streaming options for September 22
- St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Game Discussion Wednesday
- St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates - Where to Watch, Stream Info, TV Channel, and Live Updates (September 23, 2026)
- St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates MLB Prediction, Picks & Odds for Sept. 22, 2026
- St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/23/2026
- St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Game Discussion Wednesday
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Pittsburgh Pirates a 62% chance to win (Home 62% · Away 38%). MLB · 2026-09-25 01:35 KST.
How was the 61.9% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 61.9%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.