Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees
TBRAwayTampa Bay Rays36%
@NYYHomeNew York Yankees64%
Model PickNew York Yankees 64%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 3 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects a 64% win probability for the New York Yankees, primarily driven by their significant advantages in 'Starting Pitcher Matchup' and 'Team ERA'. While the Tampa Bay Rays show a better 'Team OBP', the Yankees' overall pitching strength and starting rotation superiority are key factors favoring their victory. With no calculated edge against the market, it's difficult to assess the betting value for this game.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 64% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation+1.8
Season Win%-0.6
Last 10 Games Form-1.2
Home/Away Split+0.5
Team OBP-2.2
Team SLG+0.7
Team ERA+4.4
Team WHIP-0.7
Starting Pitcher Matchup+8.8
Baseline 50% → final home win63.8%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | New York Yankees at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 59.8% (725 RS/584 RA) vs Away 55.3% (715/636) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 91-67 (.576) vs Away 96-62 (.608) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 6-4 vs Away 7-3 · Home W1 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 44-33 · away team away 41-36 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .311 vs Away .326 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .410 vs Away .401 (OPS .721/.727) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 3.21 vs Away 3.71 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.16 vs Away 1.13 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Cam Schlittler (ERA 1.94) vs Away Ian Seymour (ERA 4.38) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .279 · K 1450 · BB 563 / Away BABIP .295 · K 1108 · BB 500 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 3.00 · HR9 1.02 / Away K/BB 3.29 · HR9 1.26 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 3 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Rays Clinch AL East
The Tampa Bay Rays clinched their 5th AL East title with a 6-1 victory at Yankee Stadium in the second game of a doubleheader. This achievement could impact their motivation for subsequent games.
Basis: LLM · news · Rays clinch 5th AL East title with 6-1 victory at
Qualitative · Yanks Clinch Wild Card
The New York Yankees have already clinched home-field advantage for the Wild Card Series. This could affect their focus or pitching rotation management in the remaining regular season games.
Basis: LLM · news · Yanks focused with Wild Card Series home-field cli
Qualitative · Rodón's Dominant Start
Carlos Rodón of the Yankees delivered 8 dominant frames in the DH opener, staving off the Rays' clinch. This strong performance could boost team morale or influence subsequent starting pitchers.
Basis: LLM · news · Rodón staves off Rays' clinch with 8 dominant fram
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/22/2026
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: Game Highlights
- How to watch Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees: MLB live stream, TV channel
- How to watch Rays vs. Yankees: TV channel and streaming options for September 23
- Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/23/2026
- Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/22/2026
- Rodón staves off Rays' clinch with 8 dominant frames in DH opener
- No East? No sweat: Yanks focused with Wild Card Series home-field clinched
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives New York Yankees a 64% chance to win (Home 64% · Away 36%). MLB · 2026-09-25 08:05 KST.
How was the 63.8% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 63.8%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.