Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies
ADAwayArizona Diamondbacks82%
@CRHomeColorado Rockies18%
Model PickArizona Diamondbacks 82%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 2 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects an Arizona Diamondbacks victory (82%), primarily driven by their significant advantages in 'Team ERA' and 'Starting Pitcher Matchup'. However, 'Home Advantage' presents a key variable that could favor the Rockies. The market edge for this game is currently uncalculated.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 18% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation-4.2
Season Win%-3
Last 10 Games Form-3.7
Home/Away Split-1.3
Team OBP+0.9
Team SLG+1.2
Team ERA-11.8
Team WHIP-5
Starting Pitcher Matchup-7.9
Baseline 50% → final home win17.7%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Colorado Rockies at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 39.9% (732 RS/916 RA) vs Away 50.4% (705/699) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 57-101 (.361) vs Away 84-74 (.532) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 2-8 vs Away 5-5 · Home L3 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 32-48 · away team away 39-38 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .322 vs Away .316 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .415 vs Away .399 (OPS .737/.715) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 5.55 vs Away 4.08 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.52 vs Away 1.27 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Tanner Gordon (ERA 6.01) vs Away Eduardo Rodriguez (ERA 2.89) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .306 · K 1373 · BB 492 / Away BABIP .282 · K 1168 · BB 521 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.08 · HR9 1.41 / Away K/BB 2.36 · HR9 1.15 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 2 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Rockies' Century Mark
The Colorado Rockies suffered their 100th loss of the season, falling 7-2 to the Arizona Diamondbacks. This marks their fourth consecutive season with 100 or more losses.
Basis: LLM · news · Rockies limp to 100th loss, 7-2
Qualitative · Rockies' Losing Streak
The Rockies' 7-2 loss to the Diamondbacks marked their 100th defeat and fourth straight season with 100+ losses. This likely creates significant pressure to break their losing streak and improve team morale.
Basis: LLM · news · Rockies limp to 100th loss, 7-2
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/23/2026
- Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies - Where to Watch, Stream Info, TV Channel, and Live Updates (September 23, 2026)
- Diamondbacks vs Rockies Prediction, Pick, MLB Odds for Tuesday, September 22
- Diamondbacks bite early and often as Rockies limp to 100th loss, 7-2
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: Game Highlights
- How to watch Diamondbacks vs. Rockies: TV channel and streaming options for September 22 - The Athletic
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: Game preview, picks and props for Wednesday
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: Game Highlights
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Arizona Diamondbacks a 82% chance to win (Home 18% · Away 82%). MLB · 2026-09-25 04:10 KST.
How was the 17.7% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 17.7%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.