San Jose Earthquakes @ San Diego FC
SJEAwaySan Jose Earthquakes36%
@SDFHomeSan Diego FC38%
Model PickSan Diego FC 38%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 2 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We favor San Diego FC, primarily driven by their Home Advantage. However, the negative impact of Season Form (record) remains a key swing risk, and our model does not consistently outperform the market over the long term.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts San Jose Earthquakes vs San Diego FC by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 38% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)-2.9
Shots on Target %+0
Baseline 50% → final home win50.9%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 38%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | San Diego FC at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home San Diego FC 8-6-9 vs Away San Jose Earthquakes 10-5-8 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home LWWLW vs Away DDLLL (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 1.74 vs Away 1.74 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 1.48 vs Away 1.48 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 37.18% vs Away 37.06% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 16.3% vs Away 14.8% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 60.47% vs Away 49.15% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 89.06% vs Away 81.99% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 66.09% vs Away 66.28% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 2 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · SDFC Faces Double Match Week
San Diego FC enters a demanding double match week at Snapdragon Stadium, hosting both San Jose and Philadelphia, which will test their squad depth and rotation.
Basis: LLM · news · Double Match Week! SDFC continues playoff push aga
Qualitative · SDFC Bolsters Defense with Sam Vines
San Diego FC has strengthened their defensive line by acquiring defender Sam Vines on loan from Houston Dynamo.
Basis: LLM · news · San Diego FC Acquires Defender Sam Vines on Loan f
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Double Match Week! SDFC continues playoff push against Quakes, Union at Snapdragon Stadium
- San Diego FC vs San Jose Earthquakes: Predictions, Picks, Odds & Lineups
- Houston Dynamo FC loan defender Sam Vines to San Diego FC
- Pre-match San Diego FC vs San Jose Earthquakes, MLS Round 24
- Orlando City - San Diego FC 1 - 0 | GOAL - Antoine Griezmann
- Match Recap: San Diego FC Falls 1-0 to Orlando City SC at Inter.co Stadium
- World Cup to MLS: 12 summer signings you need to know
- Austin FC vs San Jose Earthquakes: TV channel, live stream & kick-off time | Goal.com US
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
San Jose Earthquakes vs San Diego FC — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives San Diego FC a 38% chance to win (Home 38% · Draw 26% · Away 36%). MLS · 2026-09-10 11:30 KST.
How was the 50.9% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 50.9%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.