Red Bull New York @ LAFC
RBNYAwayRed Bull New York28%
@LAFHomeLAFC46%
Model PickLAFC 46%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 3 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We favor LAFC to win, primarily driven by their 'Defense (goals against/game)' and 'Home Advantage'. However, a slight negative impact from 'Shots on Target %' exists, and it is important to note that our model does not consistently beat the market in the long run.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Red Bull New York vs LAFC by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 46% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)+1.5
Attack (goals/game)+1.2
Defense (goals against/game)+6
Shots on Target %-0.7
Baseline 50% → final home win61.7%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 46%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | LAFC at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home LAFC 10-7-7 vs Away Red Bull New York 7-6-10 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home DDDLL vs Away DLDLL (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 1.58 vs Away 1.39 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 1 vs Away 2 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 31.21% vs Away 36.04% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 12.8% vs Away 11.9% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 46.9% vs Away 53.08% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 86.96% vs Away 83.84% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 66.67% vs Away 65.13% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 3 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Key Midfielder Transfer
Red Bull New York has acquired Honduran international midfielder David Ruiz on loan from Inter Miami. This move could immediately impact the team's midfield dynamics and overall performance.
Basis: LLM · news · Red Bull New York Acquires Honduran International
Qualitative · Forward Loaned Out
Red Bull New York forward Roald Mitchell has been loaned to a Danish club. This departure could affect the team's attacking options and depth.
Basis: LLM · news · Red Bull New York Loan Forward Roald Mitchell to V
Qualitative · Forward Permanent Transfer
Red Bull New York forward Dennis Gjengaar has been permanently transferred to a Norwegian club. This move will alter the team's attacking lineup.
Basis: LLM · news · Red Bull New York transfer Dennis Gjengaar to Norw
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Red Bull New York Acquires Honduran International David Ruiz via Loan from Inter Miami CF
- Watch: NYCFC II vs Red Bull NY II | MW 27
- Inter Miami CF Loans Homegrown Midfielder David Ruíz to Red Bull New York
- TUNE IN: How to watch Sounders FC vs. Red Bull New York on Saturday
- Red Bull New York transfer Dennis Gjengaar to Norwegian club
- Recap | Real Salt Lake 2-2 LAFC | 2026 MLS Season
- GEODIS Preview: Nashville SC eyes fifth win in a row, season sweep in road tilt at New York City FC
- Red Bull New York Loan Forward Roald Mitchell to Viborg FF
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Red Bull New York vs LAFC — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives LAFC a 46% chance to win (Home 46% · Draw 26% · Away 28%). MLS · 2026-09-10 11:30 KST.
How was the 61.7% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 61.7%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.