New England Revolution @ New York City FC
NERAwayNew England Revolution40%
@NYCFHomeNew York City FC34%
Model PickNew England Revolution 40%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 3 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We favor New England Revolution to win, supported by our model's 40% win probability despite their 'Season Form (record)' struggles. While the 'Home Advantage' for NYCFC remains a significant hurdle, our model does not consistently beat the market, so proceed with caution.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts New England Revolution vs New York City FC by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 34% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)-8
Attack (goals/game)-0.3
Defense (goals against/game)-0.5
Shots on Target %+0.5
Baseline 50% → final home win45.4%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 34%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | New York City FC at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home New York City FC 7-8-8 vs Away New England Revolution 11-4-8 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home DDDLL vs Away LWDWL (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 1.57 vs Away 1.61 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 1.35 vs Away 1.26 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 41.38% vs Away 38.14% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 16.1% vs Away 15% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 53.67% vs Away 51.05% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 85.03% vs Away 87.86% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 68.83% vs Away 68.47% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 3 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Daniel Gazdag Signs with Revs
New England Revolution have bolstered their midfield by signing Daniel Gazdag. His arrival is expected to inject creativity and a new dynamic into the Revs' attacking transition.
Basis: LLM · news · New England Revolution sign midfielder Dániel Gazd
Qualitative · Revs Face Tight Turnaround
New England faces a demanding schedule, traveling to New York City FC just four days after their away match against the LA Galaxy on September 5, raising concerns over squad fatigue.
Basis: LLM · news · MATCHDAY GUIDE | Revs at LA Galaxy (September 5, 2
Qualitative · NYCFC's Finishing Woes
New York City FC settled for a scoreless draw against Nashville SC, failing to breach rookie goalkeeper Brian Schwake and highlighting their recent struggles in front of goal.
Basis: LLM · news · Match Highlights | New York City FC 0-0 Nashville
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- MATCHDAY GUIDE | Revs at LA Galaxy (September 5, 2026)
- Match Highlights | New York City FC 0-0 Nashville SC
- Starting XI presented by Modelo: LA Galaxy vs New England Revolution | September 5, 2026
- Keys to the Match | Flying Visit
- NYCFC vs New England Revolution: Predictions, Picks, Odds & Lineups
- New England Revolution sign midfielder Dániel Gazdag
- Nashville rookie Brian Schwake duels NYCFC's Matt Freese to scoreless draw
- MLS NEXT Pro introduces Play-in Round for 2026 Playoffs
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
New England Revolution vs New York City FC — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives New England Revolution a 40% chance to win (Home 34% · Draw 26% · Away 40%). MLS · 2026-09-10 09:00 KST.
How was the 45.4% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 45.4%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.