FC Cincinnati @ Philadelphia Union
FCAwayFC Cincinnati36%
@PUHomePhiladelphia Union38%
Model PickPhiladelphia Union 38%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 3 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We project a Philadelphia Union win with a 38% model probability. The primary drivers for this pick are '수비력(실점/경기) / Defense (goals against/game)' and '홈 어드밴티지 / Home Advantage'. However, the negative delta in '공격력(득점/경기) / Attack (goals/game)' remains a key swing risk, with the edge against the market currently uncalculated.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 38% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)+0.2
Attack (goals/game)-4.1
Defense (goals against/game)+3.9
Shots on Target %-1.9
Baseline 50% → final home win51.7%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 38%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Philadelphia Union at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home Philadelphia Union 7-6-10 vs Away FC Cincinnati 8-7-7 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home WWDDW vs Away LDWDL (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 1.57 vs Away 2.23 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 1.7 vs Away 2.32 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 30.48% vs Away 43.46% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 11% vs Away 17.1% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 46.76% vs Away 50.34% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 75.43% vs Away 85.46% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 63.07% vs Away 65.97% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 3 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Union Extend Unbeaten Run to Eight
Philadelphia Union extended their impressive unbeaten streak to eight matches following a clinical 2-0 victory over Montreal, showcasing peak form.
Basis: LLM · news · Union extend unbeaten run to eight
Qualitative · Cavan Sullivan's Historic Impact
Teenage sensation Cavan Sullivan made MLS history in the Union's recent victory, injecting fresh tactical energy and momentum into the squad.
Basis: LLM · news · Teenager Cavan Sullivan makes MLS history in Union
Qualitative · Cincinnati Match Postponement
FC Cincinnati's previous fixture against D.C. United was postponed, potentially affecting their match fitness and competitive rhythm ahead of this clash.
Basis: LLM · news · FC Cincinnati game against D.C. United postponed
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Match Recap: FC Cincinnati 2 (2) Philadelphia Union II (3)
- Theo Reed Named MLS NEXT Pro Rising Star of the Matchweek
- Philadelphia Union vs. FC Cincinnati - Live Updates - September 9, 2026
- Power Rankings: Philadelphia Union continue epic ascent
- Teenager Cavan Sullivan makes MLS history in Union's 2-0 victory over Montreal
- FC Cincinnati game against D.C. United postponed
- Where to watch Philadelphia Union today? Live soccer streams and TV channel for upcoming games
- Recap | Sullivan makes history as Union extend unbeaten run to eight
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Philadelphia Union a 38% chance to win (Home 38% · Draw 26% · Away 36%). MLS · 2026-09-10 08:30 KST.
How was the 51.7% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 51.7%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.