Colorado Rapids @ Austin FC
CRAwayColorado Rapids46%
@AFHomeAustin FC28%
Model PickColorado Rapids 46%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 1 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We recommend Colorado Rapids to win with a 46% model probability, though the edge against the market is uncalculated. The primary driver for this pick is '시즌 폼(전적) / Season Form (record)', while the main swing risk remains Austin FC's edge in '홈 어드밴티지 / Home Advantage'. Please note that our model does not beat the market over the long term, so a cautious approach is advised.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Colorado Rapids vs Austin FC by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 28% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)-13.3
Attack (goals/game)-0.5
Defense (goals against/game)-2.8
Shots on Target %+0.8
Baseline 50% → final home win37.8%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 28%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Austin FC at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home Austin FC 6-7-10 vs Away Colorado Rapids 10-1-12 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home DWLDW vs Away LWLWW (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 1.26 vs Away 1.35 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 1.83 vs Away 1.35 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 37.85% vs Away 32.48% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 13.1% vs Away 14.2% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 49.25% vs Away 55.6% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 84.88% vs Away 87.23% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 68.9% vs Away 67.59% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 1 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Rapids' Road Form Collapses
Colorado Rapids suffered a devastating 3-0 away defeat against Columbus Crew, with the performance being heavily criticized as a 'technical disaster' in the second half, highlighting severe tactical and organizational issues on the road.
Basis: LLM · news · Rapids listless in road loss to Columbus Crew: ‘Th
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Recap | Rapids fall to Crew in 3-0 loss in Columbus
- ATXFC II Defeats Derby Rivals Dynamo 2
- Highlights: Columbus 3-0 Colorado Rapids (MLS)
- 2026 MLS NEXT Pro Matchweek 26 Power Rankings
- Recap | Colorado Rapids 2 drop road result against MNUFC2
- Rapids listless in road loss to Columbus Crew: ‘The second half was a technical disaster’
- How the Rapids Spend the Herrington Money Will Define Pádraig Smith
- Gonzalo Tapia's goal and assist in the 2nd half helps the Crew beat the Rapids 3-0
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Colorado Rapids vs Austin FC — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Colorado Rapids a 46% chance to win (Home 28% · Draw 26% · Away 46%). MLS · 2026-09-10 09:30 KST.
How was the 37.8% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 37.8%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.