Charlotte FC @ CF Montréal
CFAwayCharlotte FC44%
@CMHomeCF Montréal30%
Model PickCharlotte FC 44%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 2 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects Charlotte FC with a 44% win probability, surpassing CF Montréal (30%) and a draw (26%). This prediction is primarily driven by Charlotte FC's superior 'Defense (goals against/game)' and 'Season Form (record)', though 'Home Advantage' for CF Montréal presents a key swing risk. The market edge for this match is currently uncalculated.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Charlotte FC vs CF Montréal by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 30% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)-5.1
Attack (goals/game)-2.7
Defense (goals against/game)-4.3
Shots on Target %-0.8
Baseline 50% → final home win40.9%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 30%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | CF Montréal at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home CF Montréal 5-6-12 vs Away Charlotte FC 10-6-7 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home LLDWD vs Away DWWDW (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 1.3 vs Away 1.74 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 2.09 vs Away 1.39 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 37.42% vs Away 42.86% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 11% vs Away 16.3% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 48.32% vs Away 46.21% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 82.3% vs Away 86.99% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 67.19% vs Away 65.71% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 2 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Saint-Maximin's Tactical Impact
Allan Saint-Maximin has significantly elevated Charlotte FC's attacking threat, proving to be a key tactical catalyst in their recent outings.
Basis: LLM · news · Saint-Maximin lifts Charlotte
Qualitative · Kahlina's Defensive Resilience
Charlotte FC goalkeeper Kristijan Kahlina helped secure a hard-fought 0-0 draw against Houston Dynamo, maintaining his strong defensive form.
Basis: LLM · news · Dynamo play Kahlina, Charlotte to 0-0 draw
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Teenager Cavan Sullivan makes MLS history in Union's 2-0 victory over Montreal
- Golden Boot: Lionel Messi takes lead over Petar Musa
- CF Montreal vs Charlotte FC: Predictions, Picks, Odds & Lineups
- ‘Adapt to the cold!’ - Alexis Sanchez backed to star in MLS for Montreal as Bacary Sagna explains why more players should seek out the Canada experience
- MLS Predictions: New Signings and Potential Debuts in Packed Matchday 24
- Bond earns 7th shutout in last 8 starts as Dynamo play Kahlina, Charlotte to 0-0 draw
- MLS Glance
- Philadelphia Union - CF Montréal prediction & picks 05.09.2026
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Charlotte FC vs CF Montréal — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Charlotte FC a 44% chance to win (Home 30% · Draw 26% · Away 44%). MLS · 2026-09-10 08:30 KST.
How was the 40.9% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 40.9%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.