San Jose Earthquakes @ Austin FC
SJEAwaySan Jose Earthquakes43%
@AFHomeAustin FC31%
Model PickSan Jose Earthquakes 43%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 3 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
The model favors a San Jose Earthquakes victory with a 43% win probability. While 'Home Advantage' favors Austin FC, the model's projection is driven by 'Season Form', 'Attack', and 'Defense' metrics. Please note that our model does not consistently beat the market over the long term.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts San Jose Earthquakes vs Austin FC by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 31% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)-6.4
Attack (goals/game)-3.1
Defense (goals against/game)-2.2
Shots on Target %+0.2
Baseline 50% → final home win42.2%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 31%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Austin FC at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home Austin FC 6-6-10 vs Away San Jose Earthquakes 10-4-8 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home WLDWL vs Away DLLLL (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 1.27 vs Away 1.77 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 1.86 vs Away 1.5 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 39.15% vs Away 37.62% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 13.6% vs Away 15% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 49.39% vs Away 49.12% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 84.7% vs Away 81.87% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 68.5% vs Away 65.85% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 3 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Contrasting Momentum for Both Sides
Austin FC enters the clash carrying positive momentum, whereas the struggling San Jose Earthquakes travel to Austin desperate to snap their current slump.
Basis: LLM · news · Austin FC carry momentum into clash vs. struggling
Qualitative · Crucial Road Test for Quakes
San Jose Earthquakes are approaching this fixture as a crucial road matchup, emphasizing the high-stakes nature of the game for the visitors.
Basis: LLM · news · MATCH PREVIEW: Quakes Take on Austin FC in Crucial
Qualitative · Potential Debuts for New Signings
The matchday presents tactical wildcards as newly acquired signings are poised to potentially make their debuts for their respective clubs.
Basis: LLM · news · MLS Predictions: New Signings and Potential Debuts
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Match Preview Presented by Lexus: Austin FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes | September 5, 2026
- MATCH PREVIEW: Quakes Take on Austin FC in Crucial Road Matchup
- LAFC2
- Austin FC vs San Jose Earthquakes: TV channel, live stream & kick-off time | Goal.com US
- Austin FC carry momentum into clash vs. struggling Earthquakes
- Where to Watch Austin FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: TV Channel, Start Time and Live Stream
- Austin FC vs San Jose Earthquakes: Predictions, Picks, Odds & Lineups
- Player Availability Report: Austin FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes | Sept. 5, 2026
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
San Jose Earthquakes vs Austin FC — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives San Jose Earthquakes a 43% chance to win (Home 31% · Draw 26% · Away 43%). MLS · 2026-09-06 09:30 KST.
How was the 42.2% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 42.2%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.