San Diego FC @ Orlando City SC
SDFAwaySan Diego FC37%
@OCSHomeOrlando City SC37%
Model PickOrlando City SC 37%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 2 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
San Diego FC holds a slight edge with a 38% win probability. The -6% impact from 'Defense (goals against/game)' offsets the 'Home Advantage' for Orlando City, leading to a tight projection. Our model does not consistently beat the market long-term, so please exercise caution.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts San Diego FC vs Orlando City SC by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 37% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)+1.9
Attack (goals/game)-0.8
Defense (goals against/game)-6
Shots on Target %+0.5
Baseline 50% → final home win49.3%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 37%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Orlando City SC at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home Orlando City SC 7-4-11 vs Away San Diego FC 8-6-8 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home DWLDW vs Away WWLWW (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 1.68 vs Away 1.82 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 2.45 vs Away 1.5 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 40.53% vs Away 37.41% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 16% vs Away 16.8% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 48.16% vs Away 60.84% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 84.62% vs Away 89% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 64.71% vs Away 66.27% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 2 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Orlando's Intense Playoff Chase
Orlando City enters the match with high motivation, desperately needing points to secure their spot in a highly competitive playoff race.
Basis: LLM · news · playoff chase intensifies, tight playoff race
Qualitative · Urgency to Eradicate Mistakes
Perelman has publicly urged Orlando to eliminate costly mistakes on the pitch to keep their postseason ambitions alive.
Basis: LLM · news · Perelman urges Orlando to eradicate mistakes in qu
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- The Road Ahead, driven by Audi: Orlando City SC vs San Diego FC
- Orlando City hosts San Diego FC in non-conference play
- Orlando City hosts San Diego looking for points in tight playoff race
- 2026 Match Guide: Orlando vs. San Diego FC, presented by Avianca
- Orlando City hosts San Diego FC as playoff chase intensifies
- Major League Soccer, Paper Planes and Vs. Everybody Unveil Limited-Edition “City Is Mine” Collection
- Orlando City vs San Diego FC: Predictions, Picks, Odds & Lineups
- Where to watch Orlando City SC today? Live soccer streams and TV channels for upcoming games
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
San Diego FC vs Orlando City SC — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Orlando City SC a 37% chance to win (Home 37% · Draw 26% · Away 37%). MLS · 2026-09-06 08:30 KST.
How was the 49.3% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 49.3%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.