Red Bull New York @ Seattle Sounders FC
RBNYAwayRed Bull New York32%
@SSFHomeSeattle Sounders FC42%
Model PickSeattle Sounders FC 42%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 1 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We favor a Seattle Sounders victory, driven primarily by their 'Home Advantage' and superior 'Defense (goals against/game)'. However, their 'Attack (goals/game)' remains a risk factor, and it is important to note that our model does not consistently beat the market over the long term.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Red Bull New York vs Seattle Sounders FC by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 42% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Attack (goals/game)-1.9
Defense (goals against/game)+4.4
Shots on Target %+0
Baseline 50% → final home win56.2%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 42%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Seattle Sounders FC at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home Seattle Sounders FC 7-5-9 vs Away Red Bull New York 7-5-10 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home DDLLL vs Away LDLLW (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 1.14 vs Away 1.45 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 1.38 vs Away 2.09 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 35.79% vs Away 35.79% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 10.5% vs Away 12.4% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 50.24% vs Away 53.32% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 85.11% vs Away 83.95% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 67.91% vs Away 65.65% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 1 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Sounders Acquire Caden Clark
Seattle Sounders have bolstered their midfield by acquiring Caden Clark from D.C. United. His potential integration and motivation against his former club, New York Red Bulls, adds a tactical storyline to the match.
Basis: LLM · news · Sounders FC Acquires Midfielder Caden Clark From D
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Sounders FC Acquires Midfielder Caden Clark From D.C. United
- Seattle Sounders FC vs Red Bull New York: TV channel, live stream and kick-off time | Goal.com US
- Seattle Sounders acquire Caden Clark from DC United
- Where to watch New York Red Bulls today? Live soccer streams and TV channel for upcoming games
- Where to watch Seattle Sounders FC today? Live soccer streams and TV channel for upcoming games
- New York City FC vs Nashville SC: Where to watch, TV channel, live stream & kick-off time | Goal.com US
- Major League Soccer (MLS) TV Schedule: Upcoming games, dates and kick-off times
- FC Cincinnati vs DC United: Where to watch, TV channel, live stream & kick-off time | Goal.com US
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Red Bull New York vs Seattle Sounders FC — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Seattle Sounders FC a 42% chance to win (Home 42% · Draw 26% · Away 32%). MLS · 2026-09-06 09:30 KST.
How was the 56.2% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 56.2%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.