Houston Dynamo FC @ Charlotte FC
HDFAwayHouston Dynamo FC35%
@CFHomeCharlotte FC39%
Model PickCharlotte FC 39%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 2 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We favor Charlotte FC to win, driven primarily by their Home Advantage and superior Attack (goals/game). However, their negative Season Form (record) remains a key swing risk, and our model does not consistently outperform the market in the long run.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Houston Dynamo FC vs Charlotte FC by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 39% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)-4
Attack (goals/game)+2.8
Defense (goals against/game)-1.7
Shots on Target %+1.3
Baseline 50% → final home win52.2%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 39%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Charlotte FC at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home Charlotte FC 10-5-7 vs Away Houston Dynamo FC 12-3-7 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home WWDWL vs Away DLWWW (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 1.82 vs Away 1.36 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 1.45 vs Away 1.18 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 43.19% vs Away 34.38% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 16.9% vs Away 12.7% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 46.76% vs Away 46.28% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 87.04% vs Away 87.03% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 66.11% vs Away 60.47% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 2 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Saint-Maximin's Peak Form
Charlotte FC forward Allan Saint-Maximin has been named to the MLS Team of the Matchday following an outstanding performance, highlighting his current threat in the attacking third.
Basis: LLM · news · Allan Saint-Maximin Named to the MLS Team of the M
Qualitative · Lyle Foster Bolsters Houston Attack
Houston Dynamo FC has completed the signing of South African striker Lyle Foster, adding a powerful and mobile focal point to their attacking rotation.
Basis: LLM · news · Bafana Bafana striker moves to MLS side Houston Dy
11 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- How to Watch: Charlotte FC vs Houston Dynamo | September 5 at 7:30 PM ET on Apple TV
- Charlotte FC vs Houston Dynamo FC: Where to watch, TV channel, live stream & kick-off time | Goal.com US
- To the Max | Materials of The Match: Charlotte FC vs Houston Dynamo FC
- Golden Boot: Lionel Messi takes lead over Petar Musa
- Where to watch Houston Dynamo FC today? Live soccer streams and TV channel for upcoming games
- Charlotte FC Forward Allan Saint-Maximin Named to the MLS Team of the Matchday for Matchday 23
- Done deal! Bafana Bafana striker moves to MLS side Houston Dynamo FC - 'Lyle Foster presents another powerful, mobile forward to our attacking group'
- Where to watch and live stream Major League Soccer (MLS) September 2026
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Houston Dynamo FC vs Charlotte FC — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Charlotte FC a 39% chance to win (Home 39% · Draw 26% · Away 35%). MLS · 2026-09-06 08:30 KST.
How was the 52.2% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 52.2%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.