Chicago Fire FC @ Toronto FC
CFFAwayChicago Fire FC47%
@TFHomeToronto FC27%
Model PickChicago Fire FC 47%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 4 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We project a 47% win probability for Chicago Fire FC, favoring them despite Toronto FC's Home Advantage due to superior Season Form and overall efficiency. Please note that our model does not consistently beat the market in the long run.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Chicago Fire FC vs Toronto FC by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 27% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)-11.9
Attack (goals/game)-2.4
Defense (goals against/game)-2.3
Shots on Target %-0.1
Baseline 50% → final home win37%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 27%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Toronto FC at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home Toronto FC 5-10-7 vs Away Chicago Fire FC 11-4-6 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home DWDWD vs Away DLDWW (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 1.45 vs Away 1.86 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 1.73 vs Away 1.33 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 37.15% vs Away 37.8% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 15.2% vs Away 14.8% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 46.18% vs Away 51.29% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 81.45% vs Away 83.68% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 72.12% vs Away 67.46% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 4 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Lewandowski Threat at BMO Field
With Chicago Fire's Robert Lewandowski making his first Canadian visit, Toronto FC's defense insists they will not alter their tactical approach despite his star status.
Basis: LLM · news · Robert Lewandowski to make first Canadian visit as
Qualitative · Fire End Grueling Road Trip
Chicago Fire FC wraps up a demanding four-game league road trip at Toronto, which could test their physical endurance and squad depth.
Basis: LLM · news · Chicago Fire FC Wraps Up Four-Game League Road Tri
Qualitative · Noah Allen Joins Fire Defense
Chicago Fire FC has bolstered their defensive depth by acquiring defender Noah Allen on loan from Inter Miami CF.
Basis: LLM · news · Chicago Fire FC Acquires Defender Noah Allen on Lo
Qualitative · Johan Gómez Bolsters Fire Attack
Chicago Fire FC has strengthened their attacking options by acquiring winger Johan Gómez from German side Eintracht Braunschweig.
Basis: LLM · news · Chicago Fire FC Acquires Winger Johan Gómez from G
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Matchday | Chicago Fire FC Wraps Up Four-Game League Road Trip at Toronto FC
- REDS RUNDOWN | What you need to know before Matchday 24
- PREVIEW | FC Cincinnati 2 close three-match series against Toronto FC II Friday night
- Chicago Fire FC Acquires Defender Noah Allen on Loan from Inter Miami CF
- Toronto FC tickets on sale in Toronto for Chicago Fire match
- Robert Lewandowski to make first Canadian visit as Fire battle Toronto
- CF Montréal acquire Viktor Radojević from Chicago Fire
- Where to watch Chicago Fire FC today? Live soccer streams and TV channels for upcoming games
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Chicago Fire FC vs Toronto FC — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Chicago Fire FC a 47% chance to win (Home 27% · Draw 26% · Away 47%). MLS · 2026-09-06 08:30 KST.
How was the 37% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 37%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.