CF Montréal @ Philadelphia Union
CMAwayCF Montréal32%
@PUHomePhiladelphia Union42%
Model PickPhiladelphia Union 42%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 3 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We favor Philadelphia Union to win, driven primarily by their Home Advantage and superior Season Form (record). The negative delta in Shots on Target % remains a key swing risk, and our model does not consistently outperform the market over the long term.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts CF Montréal vs Philadelphia Union by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 42% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)+1.4
Attack (goals/game)+1.1
Defense (goals against/game)+1.9
Shots on Target %-1.1
Baseline 50% → final home win57.1%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 42%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Philadelphia Union at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home Philadelphia Union 6-6-10 vs Away CF Montréal 5-6-11 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home WDDWL vs Away LDWDD (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 1.55 vs Away 1.36 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 1.77 vs Away 2.09 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 29.86% vs Away 37.37% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 11.1% vs Away 11.2% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 46.66% vs Away 48.26% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 75.63% vs Away 82.54% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 63.16% vs Away 66.99% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 3 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Montreal Seeking Redemption After Humiliation
CF Montréal is highly motivated to bounce back on the road in Philadelphia following a humiliating and heavy defeat against Lionel Messi's Inter Miami.
Basis: LLM · news · CF Montreal need big response in Philadelphia afte
Qualitative · Union Defending Unbeaten Streak at Home
The Philadelphia Union enter the home stand with high momentum, looking to protect their current unbeaten streak and continue their climb in the Power Rankings.
Basis: LLM · news · Philadelphia Union host CF Montréal with unbeaten
Qualitative · Viktor Radojević Traded to Montreal
Sources report defender Viktor Radojević has been traded to CF Montréal, introducing a roster adjustment factor for the upcoming matchup.
Basis: LLM · news · Sources: Viktor Radojević Traded to CF Montréal
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Philadelphia Union vs. CF Montreal: How To Watch
- Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal: Odds, Spread, and Total
- CF Montréal visits Philadelphia Union on Saturday
- Philadelphia Union host CF Montreal in conference matchup
- Preview | Union kick off homestand hosting Montreal
- Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal: Where to Watch, TV Channel, Live Stream & Kick-Off Time | Goal.com US
- Sources: Viktor Radojević Traded to CF Montréal
- Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal: Predictions, Picks, Odds & Lineups
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
CF Montréal vs Philadelphia Union — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Philadelphia Union a 42% chance to win (Home 42% · Draw 26% · Away 32%). MLS · 2026-09-06 08:30 KST.
How was the 57.1% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 57.1%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.