Atlanta United FC @ Inter Miami CF
AUFAwayAtlanta United FC28%
@IMCHomeInter Miami CF46%
Model PickInter Miami CF 46%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 4 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We favor Inter Miami CF, driven primarily by their 'Attack (goals/game)' and 'Home Advantage'. However, the slight deficit in 'Defense (goals against/game)' remains a swing risk, and our model does not consistently beat the market in the long run.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami CF by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 46% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Attack (goals/game)+8.6
Defense (goals against/game)-0.8
Shots on Target %+1.2
Baseline 50% → final home win62.7%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 46%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Inter Miami CF at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home Inter Miami CF 12-6-4 vs Away Atlanta United FC 6-3-13 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home WLDLL vs Away LWWWL (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 2.55 vs Away 1.14 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 1.86 vs Away 1.73 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 39.94% vs Away 31.65% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 17.9% vs Away 10.3% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 57.3% vs Away 50.95% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 86.98% vs Away 85.12% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 66.25% vs Away 70.19% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 4 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Breel Embolo's Atlanta Debut
Striker Breel Embolo is set to make his highly anticipated debut for Atlanta United against Inter Miami, providing a major boost to their attacking options.
Basis: LLM · news · Breel Embolo set for Atlanta United debut vs. Inte
Qualitative · Inter Miami Signs Riquelme Fillipi
Inter Miami CF has bolstered their attacking flanks by officially signing Brazilian winger Riquelme Fillipi.
Basis: LLM · news · Inter Miami CF Signs Brazilian Winger Riquelme Fil
Qualitative · Matías Galarza Joins Inter Miami
Inter Miami has strengthened their midfield depth by acquiring Matías Galarza from Argentine giants River Plate.
Basis: LLM · news · Matías Galarza joins Inter Miami from River Plate
Qualitative · David Ruiz Loaned Out
Inter Miami CF has loaned homegrown midfielder David Ruiz to Red Bull New York, making him unavailable for selection.
Basis: LLM · news · Inter Miami CF Loans Homegrown Midfielder David Ru
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- MATCH PREVIEW: Inter Miami CF Set to Host Atlanta United FC this Saturday
- Atlanta United signs Andrew Jardines to Short-Term Agreement
- Special Features Announced for Saturday’s Inter Miami CF vs. Atlanta United Match Presented by adidas
- Breel Embolo set for Atlanta United debut vs. Inter Miami
- Inter Miami plays Atlanta United in conference action
- Red Bull New York Acquires Honduran International David Ruiz via Loan from Inter Miami CF
- Inter Miami vs Atlanta United: Predictions, Picks, Odds & Lineups
- Matías Galarza joins Inter Miami from River Plate
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami CF — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Inter Miami CF a 46% chance to win (Home 46% · Draw 26% · Away 28%). MLS · 2026-09-06 08:30 KST.
How was the 62.7% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 62.7%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.