LA Galaxy @ San Jose Earthquakes
LGAwayLA Galaxy22%
@SJEHomeSan Jose Earthquakes52%
Model PickSan Jose Earthquakes 52%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects a 52% win probability for San Jose Earthquakes, primarily driven by their 'Season Form (record)' and 'Home Advantage'. However, with no calculated edge against the market, the betting value remains unclear. Factors like 'Shots on Target %' show minimal difference between the teams, potentially acting as a key swing risk that could alter the game's outcome.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts LA Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 52% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)+9.7
Attack (goals/game)+4.4
Defense (goals against/game)+2.5
Shots on Target %+0.1
Baseline 50% → final home win70.4%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 52%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | San Jose Earthquakes at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home San Jose Earthquakes 10-2-3 vs Away LA Galaxy 5-5-5 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home LWLLL vs Away LLDWL (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 2.13 vs Away 1.35 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 1.19 vs Away 1.65 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 41.18% vs Away 40.09% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 15.5% vs Away 10.7% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 46.89% vs Away 50.24% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 81.77% vs Away 86.01% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 61.34% vs Away 67.79% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors None
This game has no extracted qualitative factors — we don't invent factors without a basis.
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
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- Where to watch San Jose Earthquakes today? Live soccer streams & TV channel for upcoming games
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Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
LA Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives San Jose Earthquakes a 52% chance to win (Home 52% · Draw 26% · Away 22%). MLS · 2026-07-26 11:30 KST.
How was the 70.4% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 70.4%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.