FC Dallas @ San Diego FC
FDAwayFC Dallas40%
@SDFHomeSan Diego FC34%
Model PickFC Dallas 40%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 3 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
FC Dallas holds a higher win probability at 40% compared to San Diego FC's 34%, primarily driven by their superior 'Season Form (record)'. However, 'Home Advantage' could favor San Diego FC, and the market edge for this pick is currently uncalculated.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts FC Dallas vs San Diego FC by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 34% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)-5.7
Attack (goals/game)-0.8
Defense (goals against/game)-1.6
Shots on Target %+0.2
Baseline 50% → final home win45.8%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 34%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | San Diego FC at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home San Diego FC 4-5-6 vs Away FC Dallas 7-4-4 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home LLDWD vs Away DWWLW (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 1.88 vs Away 2 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 1.75 vs Away 1.5 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 39.56% vs Away 38.46% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 16.8% vs Away 16.8% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 60.63% vs Away 42.58% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 89.08% vs Away 78.61% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 61.84% vs Away 68.31% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 3 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Late Goal Conceded
San Diego FC recently lost to the Colorado Rapids after conceding a goal in injury time, which could negatively impact team morale and confidence.
Basis: LLM · news · San Diego FC allows yet another injury-time goal,
Qualitative · Dallas Blows Late Lead
FC Dallas drew with the Portland Timbers after conceding an equalizer in stoppage time. This experience of letting a win slip away could affect their performance in the next match.
Basis: LLM · news · Mora scores in stoppage time to help Timbers escap
Qualitative · Weather Delay Impact
San Diego FC's recent match against the Colorado Rapids experienced a weather delay. Such an unexpected interruption could have disrupted the players' rhythm and focus.
Basis: LLM · news · Colorado Rapids vs. San Diego FC enters weather de
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- FC Dallas Draws 2-2 with Portland Timbers
- Colorado Rapids vs. San Diego FC enters weather delay
- Preview | Rapids return to MLS play with home contest against San Diego FC
- Mora scores in stoppage time to help Timbers escape with a draw against FC Dallas
- San Diego FC v FC Dallas Odds
- San Diego FC vs FC Dallas: previous stats | MLS - Liga USA 2026
- July 25, 2026: San Diego FC vs Dallas Soccer Prediction Market
- San Diego FC allows yet another injury-time goal, falls to Rapids in MLS restart
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
FC Dallas vs San Diego FC — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives FC Dallas a 40% chance to win (Home 34% · Draw 26% · Away 40%). MLS · 2026-07-26 10:30 KST.
How was the 45.8% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 45.8%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.