Colorado Rapids @ St. Louis CITY SC
CRAwayColorado Rapids43%
@SLCSHomeSt. Louis CITY SC31%
Model PickColorado Rapids 43%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 4 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model predicts a Colorado Rapids victory, primarily driven by their superior 'Season Form (record)'. While St. Louis CITY SC is on a roll after a 3-1 win against LA Galaxy, the 'Home Advantage' for St. Louis is a key swing risk that could offset Colorado's edge. The market edge for this pick is currently uncalculated.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Colorado Rapids vs St. Louis CITY SC by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 31% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)-10
Attack (goals/game)-1.5
Defense (goals against/game)+0.4
Shots on Target %-0.8
Baseline 50% → final home win41.9%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 31%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | St. Louis CITY SC at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home St. Louis CITY SC 4-4-6 vs Away Colorado Rapids 5-1-9 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home WWWWD vs Away WLWLW (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 1.38 vs Away 1.63 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 1.44 vs Away 1.5 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 32.89% vs Away 38.2% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 10.3% vs Away 15.3% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 50.02% vs Away 55.75% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 85.1% vs Away 87.68% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 60.91% vs Away 62.34% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 4 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · STL City's Momentum
St. Louis CITY SC is on a roll after a decisive 3-1 victory against LA Galaxy, indicating strong current form and team morale that could carry into this match.
Basis: LLM · news · STL City's on a roll after 3-1 win in LA
Qualitative · Rapids' Stoppage-Time Win
The Colorado Rapids secured a dramatic 1-0 victory over San Diego with a stoppage-time game-winner from Loïc Williams, which could provide a significant confidence boost.
Basis: LLM · news · Loïc Williams scores stoppage-time game-winner to
Qualitative · Post-World Cup Return
With MLS play resuming after the World Cup break, player conditioning and tactical readjustments will be crucial for all teams, potentially impacting both sides in this fixture.
Basis: LLM · news · Every Team Back in Action Post-World Cup for Match
Qualitative · Player Status Report
The MLS Player Status Report for Matchday 17 is vital for identifying any players out due to injury or suspension, which could directly impact the lineups and strength of both teams.
Basis: LLM · news · MLS Player Status Report: Matchday 17
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Preview | Rapids return to MLS play with home contest against San Diego FC
- Starting XI presented by Modelo: LA Galaxy vs St. Louis CITY SC | July 22, 2026
- Where to watch St Louis CITY SC today? Live soccer streams and TV channels for upcoming games
- St Louis City SC v Colorado Odds
- July 25, 2026: Saint Louis vs Colorado Soccer Prediction Market
- MLS Predictions: Every Team Back in Action Post-World Cup for Matchday 17
- Don't look now, but STL City's on a roll after 3-1 win in LA
- LA Galaxy vs. St. Louis (23 Jul, 2026) Live Score
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Colorado Rapids vs St. Louis CITY SC — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Colorado Rapids a 43% chance to win (Home 31% · Draw 26% · Away 43%). MLS · 2026-07-26 09:30 KST.
How was the 41.9% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 41.9%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.