Chicago Fire FC @ New York City FC
CFFAwayChicago Fire FC39%
@NYCFHomeNew York City FC35%
Model PickChicago Fire FC 39%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 3 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects Chicago Fire FC with a 39% win probability, higher than New York City FC (35%) and a draw (26%). This projection is primarily driven by Chicago's superior 'Season Form (record)'. However, 'Home Advantage' for New York City FC presents a key swing risk. The market edge for this pick is currently uncalculated.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Chicago Fire FC vs New York City FC by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 35% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)-6
Attack (goals/game)-1.5
Defense (goals against/game)-0.7
Shots on Target %+1.5
Baseline 50% → final home win47.1%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 35%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | New York City FC at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home New York City FC 6-4-6 vs Away Chicago Fire FC 8-2-5 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home WLLDW vs Away LWWWL (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 1.69 vs Away 1.93 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 1.38 vs Away 1.27 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 44.69% vs Away 34.53% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 15.2% vs Away 13.5% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 55.8% vs Away 52.46% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 86.03% vs Away 82.64% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 67.83% vs Away 64.85% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 3 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Lewandowski's Losing Debut
Robert Lewandowski's MLS debut resulted in a 3-2 road loss against Inter Miami CF, which could negatively impact team morale.
Basis: LLM · news · Robert Lewandowski Makes MLS Debut in 3-2 Road Los
Qualitative · Own Goal Victory
Chicago Fire FC secured a 1-0 victory against Inter Miami CF, but it was due to an own goal, raising questions about their offensive prowess.
Basis: LLM · news · Inter Miami CF – Chicago Fire FC 0 - 1 | OWN GOAL
Qualitative · Reserve Team Struggles
Chicago Fire FC II suffered two 3-2 losses to Crown Legacy FC, which might indicate broader issues with the club's morale or player depth.
Basis: LLM · news · Crown Legacy FC | 3 - 2 | Chicago Fire FC II
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Match Recap | Robert Lewandowski Makes MLS Debut in 3-2 Road Loss against Inter Miami CF
- Crown Legacy FC | 3 - 2 | Chicago Fire FC II
- Match Recap | Columbus Crew 1-2 New York City FC
- July 25, 2026: New York City vs Chicago Fire Soccer Prediction Market
- New York City v Chicago Fire Odds
- Where to watch New York City FC today? Live soccer streams & TV channel for upcoming games
- Inter Miami CF – Chicago Fire FC 0 - 1 | OWN GOAL – Ian Fray
- MLS Player Status Report: Matchday 17 (Wednesday, July 22)
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Chicago Fire FC vs New York City FC — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Chicago Fire FC a 39% chance to win (Home 35% · Draw 26% · Away 39%). MLS · 2026-07-26 08:30 KST.
How was the 47.1% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 47.1%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.