Charlotte FC @ Red Bull New York
CFAwayCharlotte FC38%
@RBNYHomeRed Bull New York36%
Model PickCharlotte FC 38%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 2 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects Charlotte FC with a 38% win probability, slightly favoring them over Red Bull New York at 36%. Charlotte FC shows an advantage in 'Defense (goals against/game)', while 'Home Advantage' could benefit Red Bull New York. The market edge for this match is currently uncalculated.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Charlotte FC vs Red Bull New York by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 36% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Defense (goals against/game)-3.9
Shots on Target %-0.6
Baseline 50% → final home win49.2%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 36%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Red Bull New York at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home Red Bull New York 6-4-6 vs Away Charlotte FC 6-4-6 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home LWDWW vs Away DWWLD (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 1.63 vs Away 1.63 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 2.19 vs Away 1.56 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 37.91% vs Away 42.11% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 12.5% vs Away 14.1% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 52.81% vs Away 46.64% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 83.04% vs Away 87.35% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 59.75% vs Away 59.09% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 2 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Post-WC Slump
Red Bull New York suffered a defeat to Philadelphia Union in their first match back after the World Cup break, indicating a potential dip in form and morale.
Basis: LLM · news · Red Bulls suffer defeat in World Cup return
Qualitative · Tight Schedule
Red Bull New York played Philadelphia Union on Wednesday and now faces Charlotte FC just two days later, suggesting potential player fatigue from a condensed schedule.
Basis: LLM · news · Red Bull New York Head to Subaru Park to Face Off
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- MATCH PREVIEW, pres. by Toyota: Red Bull New York Head to Subaru Park to Face Off Against Philadelphia Union on Wednesday Night
- Looking Ahead | Philadelphia Union's busy return to play
- Assets: MLS Hosts "The Next Chapter" Event in New York City Featuring Commissioner Don Garber and Global Soccer Stars
- MLS Predictions: Every Team Back in Action Post-World Cup for Matchday 17
- MATCH RECAP, pres. by Provident Bank: Red Bulls Fall to Union
- Red Bull NY vs. Charlotte (26 Jul, 2026) Live Score
- Highlights: Charlotte FC 2-2 Atlanta United (MLS)
- Red Bulls suffer defeat in World Cup return
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Charlotte FC vs Red Bull New York — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Charlotte FC a 38% chance to win (Home 36% · Draw 26% · Away 38%). MLS · 2026-07-26 07:30 KST.
How was the 49.2% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 49.2%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.