Atlanta United FC @ New England Revolution
AUFAwayAtlanta United FC23%
@NERHomeNew England Revolution51%
Model PickNew England Revolution 51%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 3 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects a 51% chance for New England Revolution to win, recommending a bet on them against Atlanta United FC. This prediction is primarily driven by New England's superior 'Season Form (record)' and 'Home Advantage'. The edge against the market is currently uncalculated, so it's unclear if this pick offers value compared to market odds.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Atlanta United FC vs New England Revolution by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 51% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)+8.7
Attack (goals/game)+2.7
Defense (goals against/game)+2.4
Shots on Target %+1
Baseline 50% → final home win68.6%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 51%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | New England Revolution at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home New England Revolution 8-2-5 vs Away Atlanta United FC 3-3-10 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home DLWLW vs Away DLLLD (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 1.47 vs Away 1 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 1.2 vs Away 1.63 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 38.31% vs Away 30.48% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 14.6% vs Away 8.8% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 49.13% vs Away 52.72% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 86.99% vs Away 85.33% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 64.71% vs Away 65.02% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 3 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Atlanta Utd Signs 3 Short-Term Players
Atlanta United has signed Arif Kovac, Toto Majub, and Ignacio Suarez-Couri to short-term agreements. This move likely aims to increase tactical flexibility or fill specific positional gaps within the squad.
Basis: LLM · news · Atlanta United signs Arif Kovac, Toto Majub and Ig
Qualitative · Revs Return Post-World Cup Break
The New England Revolution drew Toronto FC in their return to MLS action after the World Cup break. This could impact the team's match sharpness and overall form.
Basis: LLM · news · Revolution draw Toronto FC in return to MLS action
Qualitative · Revs Ready for Second Half
The New England Revolution are reportedly ready to roll into the second half of the MLS season, fueled by World Cup hype and a strong start. This could positively impact team morale and confidence.
Basis: LLM · news · World Cup hype and strong start have Revs ready to
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Recap | Revolution draw Toronto FC in return to MLS action
- Atlanta United signs Arif Kovac, Toto Majub and Ignacio Suarez-Couri to Short-Term Agreements
- How to Watch: Charlotte FC vs Atlanta United | 8:15 PM | FS1, Apple TV
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- Line up New England Revolution vs Atlanta United FC, MLS - Liga USA 2026
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- MATCHDAY GUIDE | Revs vs. Toronto FC (July 22, 2026)
- MLS Week 17 Odds, Predictions and Best Bets for July 22 Games
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Atlanta United FC vs New England Revolution — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives New England Revolution a 51% chance to win (Home 51% · Draw 26% · Away 23%). MLS · 2026-07-26 08:30 KST.
How was the 68.6% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 68.6%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.