Toronto FC @ New England Revolution
TFAwayToronto FC21%
@NERHomeNew England Revolution53%
Model PickNew England Revolution 53%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 4 qualitative
The model favors New England Revolution at 53% — a clear favorite. The main drivers are Season Form (record), Home Advantage.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Toronto FC vs New England Revolution by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 53% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)+14.2
Attack (goals/game)+0.6
Defense (goals against/game)+3.4
Shots on Target %+0.3
Baseline 50% → final home win72.1%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 53%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | New England Revolution at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home New England Revolution 8-1-5 vs Away Toronto FC 3-6-6 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home LWLWW vs Away DLLLD (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 1.57 vs Away 1.47 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 1.29 vs Away 1.93 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 39.44% vs Away 37.36% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 15.5% vs Away 13.3% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 48.42% vs Away 47.94% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 86.71% vs Away 81.32% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 63.54% vs Away 68.78% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 4 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Revs Key Player Trade
The New England Revolution executed a permanent trade option on Marcos Zambrano, which could impact the team's tactics and lineup.
Basis: LLM · news · Revolution Execute Permanent Trade Option on Marco
Qualitative · Revs Post-WC Momentum
The New England Revolution had a strong start after the World Cup break and are ready for the second half of the MLS season, which could positively impact team morale and performance.
Basis: LLM · news · World Cup hype and strong start have Revs ready to
Qualitative · Toronto FC II Struggles
Toronto FC's reserve team, Toronto FC II, lost 3-1 to FC Cincinnati II. This could indirectly affect the first team's morale or player management.
Basis: LLM · news · RECAP | FC Cincinnati 2 drop road result against T
Qualitative · Toronto FC GK Scoreless Draw
Toronto FC's goalkeeper, Luka Gavran, played to a scoreless draw against Montreal. While this highlights defensive solidity, it may raise questions about the team's offensive output.
Basis: LLM · news · Toronto's Luka Gavran duels Montreal's Thomas Gill
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- MATCHDAY GUIDE | Revs vs. Toronto FC (July 22, 2026)
- RECAP | FC Cincinnati 2 drop road result against Toronto FC II, fall 3-1 to Young Reds
- New England vs. Atlanta (Jul 25, 2026) Live Score
- New England Revolution vs Toronto FC: previous stats | MLS - Liga USA 2026
- Toronto FC take on Carles Gil’s New England Revolution
- Toronto FC at New England Revolution - MLS Game Summary - Jul 22, 2026
- World Cup hype and strong start have Revs ready to roll into second half of MLS season
- Where to watch New England Revolution today? Live soccer streams and TV channel for upcoming games
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Toronto FC vs New England Revolution — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives New England Revolution a 53% chance to win (Home 53% · Draw 26% · Away 21%). MLS · 2026-07-23 08:30 KST.
How was the 72.1% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 72.1%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.