Seattle Sounders FC @ Austin FC
SSFAwaySeattle Sounders FC46%
@AFHomeAustin FC28%
Model PickSeattle Sounders FC 46%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 4 qualitative
The model favors Seattle Sounders FC at 46% — a moderate favorite. The main drivers are Season Form (record), Defense (goals against/game), offset by Home Advantage.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Seattle Sounders FC vs Austin FC by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 28% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)-9.7
Attack (goals/game)-0.1
Defense (goals against/game)-5.6
Shots on Target %-0.3
Baseline 50% → final home win38%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 28%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Austin FC at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home Austin FC 3-5-7 vs Away Seattle Sounders FC 7-3-3 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home LLLDW vs Away LLLWD (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 1.27 vs Away 1.29 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 2.07 vs Away 1.14 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 37.25% vs Away 39.47% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 12.4% vs Away 9.6% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 47.67% vs Away 52.97% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 84% vs Away 86.08% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 60.92% vs Away 62.96% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 4 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Sounders' Post-WC Slump
Seattle suffered a significant drop in form, losing 1-5 to Portland in their first MLS match back from the World Cup break.
Basis: LLM · news · Sounders FC Falls 5-1 to Portland in Return to MLS
Qualitative · Austin Home Kickoff Change
Austin FC's home match against Seattle on July 22nd has had its kickoff time moved, which could impact the home team's preparation and fan experience.
Basis: LLM · news · Kickoff Time Moved for Austin FC's July 22 Match v
Qualitative · Sounders Acquire GAM
Seattle Sounders FC acquired up to $150,000 in General Allocation Money (GAM) from Orlando, which could be used for future player acquisitions or roster adjustments, indirectly impacting team strength.
Basis: LLM · news · Sounders FC Acquires up to $150,000 in General All
Qualitative · Recent Seattle Win vs. Austin
Seattle defeated Austin 2-0 in their match on June 28, 2025, providing insight into the recent head-to-head dynamic between the two teams.
Basis: LLM · news · Seattle 2-0 Austin (Jun 28, 2025) Final Score
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Seattle 2-0 Austin (Jun 28, 2025) Final Score
- Kickoff Time Moved for Austin FC's July 22 Match vs. Seattle
- Sounders FC Acquires up to $150,000 in General Allocation Money From Orlando
- Seattle Sounders FC at Austin FC - MLS Game Summary - Jul 22, 2026
- Austin FC vs Seattle Sounders: previous stats | MLS - Liga USA 2026
- MATCH RECAP: Sounders FC Falls 5-1 to Portland in Return to MLS Play
- July 22, 2026: Austin vs Seattle Soccer Prediction Market
- Where to watch Seattle Sounders FC today? Live soccer streams and TV channel for upcoming games
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Seattle Sounders FC vs Austin FC — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Seattle Sounders FC a 46% chance to win (Home 28% · Draw 26% · Away 46%). MLS · 2026-07-23 10:30 KST.
How was the 38% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 38%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.