San Diego FC @ Colorado Rapids
SDFAwaySan Diego FC26%
@CRHomeColorado Rapids48%
Model PickColorado Rapids 48%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 3 qualitative
The model favors Colorado Rapids at 48% — a moderate favorite. The main drivers are Season Form (record), Home Advantage, offset by Attack (goals/game).
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts San Diego FC vs Colorado Rapids by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 48% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)+11.2
Attack (goals/game)-1.9
Defense (goals against/game)+1.2
Shots on Target %+0
Baseline 50% → final home win64.2%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 48%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Colorado Rapids at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home Colorado Rapids 5-1-9 vs Away San Diego FC 4-5-6 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home LWLWL vs Away LDWDD (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 1.67 vs Away 2 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 1.6 vs Away 1.8 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 39.64% vs Away 39.77% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 14.8% vs Away 17% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 56.09% vs Away 61.61% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 87.6% vs Away 89.21% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 61.95% vs Away 60.95% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 3 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Rapids' Home Skid
The Colorado Rapids are currently on a three-game home losing streak, which could negatively impact team morale and performance.
Basis: LLM · news · Colorado Rapids host San Diego FC on 3-game home l
Qualitative · San Diego's Season Finale
San Diego FC is playing their final regular season game, which could provide strong motivation to finish on a high note.
Basis: LLM · news · San Diego FC looks to capture the magic to close o
Qualitative · San Diego's New Signings
San Diego FC completed a double MLS signing ahead of their regular season return, which could alter the team's dynamics.
Basis: LLM · news · San Diego FC complete double MLS signing ahead of
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- San Diego FC looks to capture the magic to close out the regular season
- Colorado Rapids vs San Diego FC: previous stats | MLS - Liga USA 2026
- San Diego FC at Colorado Rapids - MLS Game Summary - Jul 22, 2026
- Colorado Rapids host San Diego FC on 3-game home losing streak
- July 22, 2026: Colorado vs San Diego FC Soccer Prediction Market
- Colorado Rapids vs San Diego FC: Predictions, Picks, Odds & Lineups
- Colorado vs. CF Montréal (Sep 12, 2026) Live Score
- San Diego FC complete double MLS signing ahead of regular season return
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
San Diego FC vs Colorado Rapids — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Colorado Rapids a 48% chance to win (Home 48% · Draw 26% · Away 26%). MLS · 2026-07-23 10:30 KST.
How was the 64.2% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 64.2%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.