Red Bull New York @ Philadelphia Union
RBNYAwayRed Bull New York45%
@PUHomePhiladelphia Union29%
Model PickRed Bull New York 45%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 4 qualitative
The model favors Red Bull New York at 45% — a moderate favorite. The main drivers are Season Form (record), Attack (goals/game), offset by Home Advantage.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Red Bull New York vs Philadelphia Union by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 29% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)-11.9
Attack (goals/game)-2.8
Defense (goals against/game)+0.8
Shots on Target %-1.2
Baseline 50% → final home win38.6%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 29%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Philadelphia Union at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home Philadelphia Union 1-4-10 vs Away Red Bull New York 6-4-5 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home LDLLD vs Away WDWWL (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 1.2 vs Away 1.67 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 2 vs Away 2.13 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 29.02% vs Away 37.31% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 8% vs Away 12.4% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 46.55% vs Away 52.17% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 75.01% vs Away 83% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 58.3% vs Away 58.95% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 4 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Rivalry Game Intensity
Philadelphia Union is promoting this match as 'Rivalry Night,' indicating an intense contest beyond a regular game.
Basis: LLM · news · Rivalry Night
Qualitative · Union Defensive Boost
Philadelphia Union has acquired Kai Wagner from Birmingham City, which should immediately bolster their defensive line.
Basis: LLM · news · Philadelphia Union acquire Kai Wagner from Birming
Qualitative · Union Home Advantage
Red Bull New York will be traveling to Subaru Park, Philadelphia Union's home ground, where the Union will have the support of their home crowd.
Basis: LLM · news · Red Bull New York Head to Subaru Park
Qualitative · Red Bulls Schedule Fatigue
Red Bull New York plays on Wednesday and then hosts Charlotte FC on Saturday, which could lead to squad fatigue and rotation considerations.
Basis: LLM · news · Red Bulls Host Charlotte FC on Saturday, July 25
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- MATCH PREVIEW, pres. by Toyota: Red Bull New York Head to Subaru Park to Face Off Against Philadelphia Union on Wednesday Night
- Philadelphia Union vs Red Bull New York: How To Watch
- Philadelphia 2-0 Red Bull NY (Jul 12, 2025) Final Score
- Know Before You Go | Rivalry Night
- Philadelphia Union acquire Kai Wagner from Birmingham City
- Sporting KC acquires two 2026 international roster slots
- MLS NEXT Pro Honors: Matchweek 20
- Miami 6-4 Philadelphia (25 May, 2026) Final Score
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Red Bull New York vs Philadelphia Union — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Red Bull New York a 45% chance to win (Home 29% · Draw 26% · Away 45%). MLS · 2026-07-23 08:30 KST.
How was the 38.6% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 38.6%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.