Orlando City SC @ San Jose Earthquakes
OCSAwayOrlando City SC20%
@SJEHomeSan Jose Earthquakes54%
Model PickSan Jose Earthquakes 54%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 4 qualitative
The model favors San Jose Earthquakes at 54% — a clear favorite. The main drivers are Defense (goals against/game), Season Form (record).
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Orlando City SC vs San Jose Earthquakes by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 54% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)+4.9
Attack (goals/game)+4.4
Defense (goals against/game)+10.4
Shots on Target %-0.2
Baseline 50% → final home win73.2%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 54%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | San Jose Earthquakes at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home San Jose Earthquakes 10-2-3 vs Away Orlando City SC 4-2-9 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home WLLLD vs Away LWDWL (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 2.27 vs Away 1.53 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 1 vs Away 2.93 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 40% vs Away 41.92% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 16.2% vs Away 13.8% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 46.75% vs Away 45.28% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 80.96% vs Away 83.22% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 59.82% vs Away 60.56% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 4 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Griezmann's MLS Debut
World Cup winner Antoine Griezmann is set to make his MLS debut for Orlando City, aiming to lead the team to the top, which could significantly boost team morale and performance.
Basis: LLM · news · Antoine Griezmann’s impact on Orlando City being f
Qualitative · Dike's Return
Orlando City has reunited with forward Daryl Dike, potentially injecting new life and offensive power into the team's attack.
Basis: LLM · news · Orlando City reunite with F Daryl Dike; Orlando Ci
Qualitative · Post-World Cup Celebration
The San Jose Earthquakes will celebrate a successful FIFA World Cup at their Wednesday return to MLS play, which could energize the home crowd and create a positive atmosphere for the team.
Basis: LLM · news · Earthquakes to Celebrate Successful FIFA World Cup
Qualitative · Youth International Signing
The San Jose Earthquakes have signed Australia Youth International Forward Luka Jovanović as a U-22 Initiative Player, bolstering the team's future potential.
Basis: LLM · news · San Jose Earthquakes Sign Australia Youth Internat
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- The Road Ahead, driven by Audi: Orlando City SC at San Jose Earthquakes
- Earthquakes to Celebrate Successful FIFA World Cup at Wednesday’s Return to MLS Play at PayPal Park
- A look ahead and a look back: Orlando City SC 2026 upcoming schedule, results
- Judd and the San Jose Earthquakes host Orlando City
- Cincinnati vs. San Jose (Aug 1, 2026) Live Score
- San Jose Earthquakes Sign Australia Youth International Forward Luka Jovanović to U-22 Initiative Player Contract
- What You Need to Know for FC Dallas' 2026 Season Restart
- Orlando City reunite with F Daryl Dike
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Orlando City SC vs San Jose Earthquakes — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives San Jose Earthquakes a 54% chance to win (Home 54% · Draw 26% · Away 20%). MLS · 2026-07-23 11:30 KST.
How was the 73.2% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 73.2%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.