D.C. United @ Houston Dynamo FC
DUAwayD.C. United24%
@HDFHomeHouston Dynamo FC50%
Model PickHouston Dynamo FC 50%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured
The model favors Houston Dynamo FC at 50% — a moderate favorite. The main drivers are Season Form (record), Home Advantage.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts D.C. United vs Houston Dynamo FC by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 50% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)+13.5
Attack (goals/game)-0.2
Defense (goals against/game)+0.1
Shots on Target %+0.1
Baseline 50% → final home win67.3%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 50%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Houston Dynamo FC at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home Houston Dynamo FC 7-1-6 vs Away D.C. United 4-6-5 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home DLWLW vs Away DDLDW (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 1.36 vs Away 1.4 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 1.64 vs Away 1.67 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 36.96% vs Away 35.87% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 10.3% vs Away 11.4% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 42.8% vs Away 39.88% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 85.84% vs Away 73.14% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 52.66% vs Away 58.8% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors None
This game has no extracted qualitative factors — we don't invent factors without a basis.
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Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
D.C. United vs Houston Dynamo FC — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Houston Dynamo FC a 50% chance to win (Home 50% · Draw 26% · Away 24%). MLS · 2026-07-23 09:30 KST.
How was the 67.3% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 67.3%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.