CF Montréal @ Nashville SC
CMAwayCF Montréal20%
@NSHomeNashville SC54%
Model PickNashville SC 54%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 3 qualitative
The model favors Nashville SC at 54% — a clear favorite. The main drivers are Defense (goals against/game), Season Form (record).
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts CF Montréal vs Nashville SC by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 54% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)+6.3
Attack (goals/game)+3.9
Defense (goals against/game)+7.3
Shots on Target %+1.1
Baseline 50% → final home win72.3%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 54%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Nashville SC at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home Nashville SC 11-3-1 vs Away CF Montréal 4-3-8 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home WWWWD vs Away DDLDW (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 2.13 vs Away 1.47 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 0.73 vs Away 2.07 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 44.51% vs Away 35.71% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 18.9% vs Away 10.8% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 53.92% vs Away 48.5% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 87.01% vs Away 81.17% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 60.18% vs Away 61.74% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 3 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Nashville's Hot Streak
Nashville SC is on a roll, continuing their record-setting start with a 1-0 win over Atlanta United FC and maintaining their Supporters' Shield pace.
Basis: LLM · news · Nashville resumes record start with 1-0 win over A
Qualitative · Montreal's Draw
CF Montreal played to a scoreless draw against Toronto in their MLS restart, raising questions about their offensive output.
Basis: LLM · news · Toronto's Luka Gavran duels Montreal's Thomas Gill
Qualitative · Montreal's Defensive Woes
CF Montreal recently suffered a 4-3 loss to Cincinnati, highlighting potential defensive vulnerabilities.
Basis: LLM · news · Cincinnati 4-3 CF Montréal
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Renasant Recap: Nashville SC resumes record start with 1-0 win over Atlanta United FC
- Nashville brings home winning streak into matchup with CF Montreal
- Nashville SC keep up Supporters’ Shield pace in MLS restart
- Final Notes: Nashville SC 1-0 Atlanta United
- Nashville SC vs CF Montreal: Predictions, Picks, Odds & Lineups
- D.C. United vs. Nashville (Aug 1, 2026) Live Score
- Toronto's Luka Gavran duels Montreal's Thomas Gillier to scoreless draw as MLS resumes
- Where to watch Nashville SC today? Live soccer streams and TV channel for upcoming games
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
CF Montréal vs Nashville SC — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Nashville SC a 54% chance to win (Home 54% · Draw 26% · Away 20%). MLS · 2026-07-23 09:30 KST.
How was the 72.3% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 72.3%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.