Atlanta United FC @ Charlotte FC
AUFAwayAtlanta United FC28%
@CFHomeCharlotte FC46%
Model PickCharlotte FC 46%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 2 qualitative
The model favors Charlotte FC at 46% — a moderate favorite. The main drivers are Attack (goals/game), Home Advantage.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Atlanta United FC vs Charlotte FC by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 46% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)+2
Attack (goals/game)+4.1
Defense (goals against/game)+0.4
Shots on Target %+1.7
Baseline 50% → final home win61.8%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 46%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Charlotte FC at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home Charlotte FC 6-3-6 vs Away Atlanta United FC 3-2-10 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home WWLDL vs Away LLLDL (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 1.6 vs Away 0.93 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 1.53 vs Away 1.6 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 42.77% vs Away 31.16% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 14.5% vs Away 7.1% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 46.56% vs Away 52.8% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 87.11% vs Away 84.88% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 56.89% vs Away 64.26% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 2 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Key Midfielder Out
Atlanta United's Jay Fortune is expected to miss three to four weeks with a hamstring injury, which will significantly impact the team's midfield dynamics.
Basis: LLM · news · Jay Fortune expected to miss three-to-four weeks w
Qualitative · Charlotte's Home Momentum
Charlotte FC is hosting Atlanta United on the back of a shutout win, carrying strong momentum into their home fixture.
Basis: LLM · news · Charlotte FC hosts Atlanta United after shutout wi
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- How to Watch: Charlotte FC vs Atlanta United | 8:15 PM | FS1, Apple TV
- Jay Fortune expected to miss three-to-four weeks with hamstring injury
- Line up Charlotte FC vs Atlanta United FC, MLS - Liga USA 2026
- Know Before You Go: Charlotte FC vs Atlanta United FC | Wednesday, July 22, 8:15 PM
- Charlotte FC hosts Atlanta United after shutout win
- Where to watch Atlanta United FC today? Live soccer streams and TV channels for upcoming games
- Where to watch Nashville vs. Atlanta United today: MLS free live stream
- Charlotte FC v Atlanta Utd Odds
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Atlanta United FC vs Charlotte FC — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Charlotte FC a 46% chance to win (Home 46% · Draw 26% · Away 28%). MLS · 2026-07-23 09:15 KST.
How was the 61.8% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 61.8%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.