St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies
SLCAwaySt. Louis Cardinals72%
@CRHomeColorado Rockies28%
Model PickSt. Louis Cardinals 72%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 1 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects a 72% win probability for the St. Louis Cardinals, though the edge against the market is uncalculated. The primary drivers for this pick are the significant advantages in 'Team ERA' and the 'Starting Pitcher Matchup'. However, the key swing risk lies in the 'Pythagorean Expectation' and 'Home Advantage' favoring the Colorado Rockies, and users should note that our model does not beat the market over the long term.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 28% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation-3.1
Season Win%-1.9
Last 10 Games Form-1.2
Home/Away Split-1.1
Team OBP+1.2
Team SLG+2.2
Team ERA-9.9
Team WHIP-3.9
Starting Pitcher Matchup-6.6
Baseline 50% → final home win28.1%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Colorado Rockies at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 41.5% (671 RS/809 RA) vs Away 49.2% (647/658) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 55-87 (.387) vs Away 71-72 (.497) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 4-6 vs Away 5-5 · Home W1 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 30-40 · away team away 37-34 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .324 vs Away .316 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .416 vs Away .386 (OPS .740/.702) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 5.44 vs Away 4.29 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.52 vs Away 1.35 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Tanner Gordon (ERA 5.18) vs Away Kyle Leahy (ERA 3.13) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .306 · K 1230 · BB 456 / Away BABIP .284 · K 1129 · BB 453 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.07 · HR9 1.38 / Away K/BB 2.28 · HR9 1.00 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 1 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Cardinals' Defensive Woes
The St. Louis Cardinals' defense has been shaky in recent games, leading to runs for the Colorado Rockies.
Basis: LLM · news · St. Louis Sloppy Defense Dooms Cardinals
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/04/2026
- Colorado Rockies Bats and St. Louis Sloppy Defense Dooms Cardinals Saturday
- St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies Game Discussion Saturday Night
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Colorado Rockies
- How to watch Cardinals vs. Rockies: TV channel and streaming options for September 5
- St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies: Game Highlights
- St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies - Where to Watch, Stream Info, TV Channel, and Live Updates (September 06, 2026)
- St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/05/2026
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives St. Louis Cardinals a 72% chance to win (Home 28% · Away 72%). MLB · 2026-09-07 04:10 KST.
How was the 28.1% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 28.1%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.