San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets
SFGAwaySan Francisco Giants50%
@NYMHomeNew York Mets50%
Model PickNew York Mets 50%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 2 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects the New York Mets with a 50% win probability, tied with the San Francisco Giants. While the Mets benefit from "Home Advantage" and a stronger "Team ERA," they face a significant disadvantage in the "Starting Pitcher Matchup." There is currently no calculated market edge for this game.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 50% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation+0.6
Season Win%+0.7
Last 10 Games Form-1.2
Home/Away Split+1.3
Team OBP-0.4
Team SLG-1.4
Team ERA+2.3
Team WHIP+1.2
Starting Pitcher Matchup-5.8
Baseline 50% → final home win49.6%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | New York Mets at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 46.3% (592 RS/642 RA) vs Away 44.8% (601/674) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 64-78 (.451) vs Away 59-84 (.413) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 4-6 vs Away 5-5 · Home L1 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 33-40 · away team away 26-48 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .306 vs Away .309 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .390 vs Away .409 (OPS .696/.718) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 4.13 vs Away 4.39 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.31 vs Away 1.36 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Christian Scott (ERA 3.80) vs Away Cesar Perdomo (ERA 2.25) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .277 · K 1204 · BB 451 / Away BABIP .290 · K 1144 · BB 397 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.52 · HR9 1.14 / Away K/BB 2.03 · HR9 0.97 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 2 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Giants' Batting Surge
The Giants' offense exploded in their last game, scoring 9 runs with 6 home runs, which could significantly boost team morale and hitting confidence.
Basis: LLM · news · SF Giants blast six home runs, including two from
Qualitative · Series Decider
With the series tied 1-1, this game is a crucial decider. Both teams will be highly motivated to win the series.
Basis: LLM · news · Mets and Giants meet with series tied 1-1
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- San Francisco Giants at New York Mets Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/05/2026
- Rafael Devers and Christian Koss both homer twice as Giants roll to 9-5 win over Mets
- San Francisco Giants at New York Mets - Where to Watch, Stream Info, TV Channel, and Live Updates (September 04, 2026)
- San Francisco Giants vs. New York Mets: Game Highlights
- 9/5 Gamethread: Giants @ Mets
- San Francisco Giants at New York Mets Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/04/2026
- San Francisco Giants at New York Mets - Where to Watch, Stream Info, TV Channel, and Live Updates (September 06, 2026)
- 9/4 Gamethread: Giants @ Mets
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives New York Mets a 50% chance to win (Home 50% · Away 50%). MLB · 2026-09-07 02:40 KST.
How was the 49.6% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 49.6%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.