San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets
SFGAwaySan Francisco Giants38%
@NYMHomeNew York Mets62%
Model PickNew York Mets 62%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 2 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects the New York Mets with a 62% win probability, favoring them over the San Francisco Giants. This prediction is primarily driven by the Mets' significant advantages in 'Starting Pitcher Matchup' and 'Team ERA'. However, with no calculated edge against the market, the profitability of this pick remains uncertain.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 62% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation+0.8
Season Win%+0.8
Last 10 Games Form+1.2
Home/Away Split+1.4
Team OBP-0.4
Team SLG-1.1
Team ERA+2.6
Team WHIP+1.2
Starting Pitcher Matchup+3
Baseline 50% → final home win62.1%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | New York Mets at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 46.6% (587 RS/633 RA) vs Away 44.4% (592/669) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 64-77 (.454) vs Away 58-84 (.408) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 5-5 vs Away 4-6 · Home W2 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 33-39 · away team away 25-48 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .306 vs Away .309 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .391 vs Away .406 (OPS .697/.715) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 4.10 vs Away 4.40 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.31 vs Away 1.36 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Zac Thornton (ERA 2.93) vs Away Anthony Molina (ERA 3.77) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .278 · K 1195 · BB 447 / Away BABIP .291 · K 1136 · BB 395 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.51 · HR9 1.10 / Away K/BB 2.02 · HR9 0.97 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 2 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Giants' Sweep Bid
The Giants are coming off a 10-6 victory against the Mets and are now aiming for a season series sweep. This pursuit could significantly boost team morale and performance.
Basis: LLM · news · Can Giants Sweep Mets to Win Season Series?
Qualitative · Mets' Offensive Explosion
The Mets' offense exploded in the previous game, hitting 5 home runs, including two from Alvarez, en route to a 10-run performance. This offensive surge suggests their bats are hot and could carry momentum into the next game.
Basis: LLM · news · Alvarez hits 2 homers and Mets go deep 5 times to
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- San Francisco Giants at New York Mets Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/04/2026
- San Francisco Giants at New York Mets - Where to Watch, Stream Info, TV Channel, and Live Updates (September 04, 2026)
- Mets vs. Giants: Lineups, broadcast info, and open thread, 9/4/26
- How to watch Giants vs. Mets: TV channel and streaming options for September 4
- 9/4 Gamethread: Giants @ Mets
- San Francisco Giants at New York Mets MLB Prediction, Picks & Odds for Sept. 4, 2026
- San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets Odds, Spread, and Total
- Alvarez hits 2 homers and Mets go deep 5 times to back McLean in 10-6 win over Giants
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives New York Mets a 62% chance to win (Home 62% · Away 38%). MLB · 2026-09-06 05:10 KST.
How was the 62.1% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 62.1%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.