New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres
NYYAwayNew York Yankees65%
@SDPHomeSan Diego Padres35%
Model PickNew York Yankees 65%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 2 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects a 65% win probability for the New York Yankees, selecting them as the pick, though the edge against the market is uncalculated. The primary backing comes from marginal advantages in 'Starting Pitcher Matchup' and 'Team OBP'. However, a significant deficit in 'Team ERA' and 'Last 10 Games Form' remains the critical swing risk that could jeopardize this prediction.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 35% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation-3.2
Season Win%-0.7
Last 10 Games Form-3.7
Home/Away Split+0.1
Team OBP+0.4
Team SLG-1.6
Team ERA-5.7
Team WHIP-2.8
Starting Pitcher Matchup+0.2
Baseline 50% → final home win35.4%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | San Diego Padres at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 50.9% (597 RS/586 RA) vs Away 58.9% (638/524) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 74-67 (.525) vs Away 80-61 (.567) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 3-7 vs Away 6-4 · Home W1 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 42-28 · away team away 43-30 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .314 vs Away .311 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .386 vs Away .408 (OPS .700/.719) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 3.91 vs Away 3.23 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.29 vs Away 1.17 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Robbie Ray (ERA 3.14) vs Away Carlos Rodón (ERA 3.20) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .280 · K 1145 · BB 487 / Away BABIP .279 · K 1303 · BB 504 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.40 · HR9 1.12 / Away K/BB 2.98 · HR9 0.98 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 2 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Walk-off Loss Hangover
The Yankees suffered a crushing walk-off home run loss in extra innings yesterday, which could negatively impact team morale heading into this game.
Basis: LLM · news · Yankees surrender walk-off homer in extras to spoi
Qualitative · Crucial Series Matchup
Both the Yankees and Padres have announced their starting pitchers for what's being called a 'crucial series,' indicating high stakes for this particular game.
Basis: LLM · news · Padres, Yankees Announce Starting Pitchers for Cru
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- New York Yankees at San Diego Padres Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 09/04/2026
- New York Yankees at San Diego Padres
- How to watch Yankees vs. Padres: TV channel and streaming options for September 4
- New York Yankees at San Diego Padres - Where to Watch, Stream Info, TV Channel, and Live Updates (September 04, 2026)
- New York Yankees at San Diego Padres Preview - 09/04/2026
- Padres, Yankees Announce Starting Pitchers for Crucial Series in San Diego
- New York Yankees vs. San Diego Padres: Game Highlights
- Yankees surrender walk-off homer in extras to spoil Spencer Jones’ late heroics against Padres
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives New York Yankees a 65% chance to win (Home 35% · Away 65%). MLB · 2026-09-06 08:15 KST.
How was the 35.4% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 35.4%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.