San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets
SFGAwaySan Francisco Giants38%
@NYMHomeNew York Mets62%
Model PickNew York Mets 62%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 4 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects the New York Mets with a 62% win probability, giving them an edge over the San Francisco Giants. This forecast is primarily driven by the Mets' significant strengths in 'Starting Pitcher Matchup' and 'Team ERA'. However, the Giants' superior 'Last 10 Games Form' and 'Team SLG' present key swing risks for the game. The market edge is currently uncalculated.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 62% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation+0.6
Season Win%+0.7
Last 10 Games Form-1.2
Home/Away Split+1.3
Team OBP-0.3
Team SLG-1.2
Team ERA+2.5
Team WHIP+1.5
Starting Pitcher Matchup+5.7
Baseline 50% → final home win62%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | New York Mets at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 46.2% (577 RS/627 RA) vs Away 44.6% (586/659) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 63-77 (.450) vs Away 58-83 (.411) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 4-6 vs Away 5-5 · Home W1 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 32-39 · away team away 25-47 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .306 vs Away .308 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .389 vs Away .405 (OPS .695/.713) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 4.09 vs Away 4.38 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.30 vs Away 1.36 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Nolan McLean (ERA 3.06) vs Away Matt Wilkinson (ERA 4.63) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .279 · K 1191 · BB 443 / Away BABIP .290 · K 1125 · BB 389 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.52 · HR9 1.10 / Away K/BB 2.03 · HR9 0.94 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 4 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Mets' Lost Season Mentality
The New York Mets are treating the final month of the season as a learning opportunity, acknowledging their season is all but lost. This could impact player motivation and overall team performance.
Basis: LLM · news · With season all but lost, Mets can use final month
Qualitative · Mets Promote Top Prospect Catcher
The New York Mets have promoted a former first-round pick catcher before the Giants series, which could signal changes in their lineup and game strategy.
Basis: LLM · news · New York Mets Promote Former First-Round Pick Catc
Qualitative · Mets Pitching Roster Shuffle
The New York Mets quietly signed a 26-year-old pitcher before the Giants series, potentially impacting their bullpen or even the starting rotation.
Basis: LLM · news · New York Mets Quietly Sign 26-Year-Old Pitcher Bef
Qualitative · Mets Roster Cuts
The New York Mets cut ties with a 26-year-old player in a recent roster decision, which could affect team morale or depth at a specific position.
Basis: LLM · news · New York Mets Cut Ties with 26-Year-Old Player in
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Mets play the Giants in first of 3-game series
- New York Mets Announce Roster News on 2 Players Before Giants Series
- Watch ESPN Upcoming Schedule - Saturday, September 5, 2026
- Only 4 MLB teams got Barefoot Dreams blankets, see who made the cut
- New York Mets Promote Former First-Round Pick Catcher Before Giants Series
- Tampa Bay Rays look to capitalize on struggling New York Mets as Freddy Peralta faces former team
- With season all but lost, Mets can use final month to learn key lessons
- New York Mets Cut Ties with 26-Year-Old Player in Recent Roster Decision
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives New York Mets a 62% chance to win (Home 62% · Away 38%). MLB · 2026-09-05 08:10 KST.
How was the 62% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 62%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.