New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies
NYYAwayNew York Yankees67%
@PPHomePhiladelphia Phillies33%
Model PickNew York Yankees 67%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects the New York Yankees with a 67% win probability, favoring them over the Philadelphia Phillies at 33%. This projection is primarily driven by the Yankees' significant advantages in 'Team ERA' (-7.3 deltaPct) and 'Team WHIP' (-3.1 deltaPct). However, 'Home Advantage' (2.5 deltaPct) and 'Starting Pitcher Matchup' (1.9 deltaPct) represent key swing factors that could benefit the Phillies.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 33% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation-4.3
Season Win%-0.3
Last 10 Games Form-2.5
Home/Away Split-0.8
Team OBP-1.8
Team SLG-1.3
Team ERA-7.3
Team WHIP-3.1
Starting Pitcher Matchup+1.9
Baseline 50% → final home win33%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Philadelphia Phillies at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 48.5% (448 RS/463 RA) vs Away 59.2% (480/392) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 56-47 (.544) vs Away 57-45 (.559) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 5-5 vs Away 7-3 · Home L2 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 27-25 · away team away 31-22 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .303 vs Away .315 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .402 vs Away .420 (OPS .705/.735) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 4.27 vs Away 3.38 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.32 vs Away 1.18 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Jesús Luzardo (ERA 3.43) vs Away Will Warren (ERA 4.00) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .279 · K 913 · BB 302 / Away BABIP .278 · K 917 · BB 382 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 3.34 · HR9 1.23 / Away K/BB 2.93 · HR9 1.01 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors None
This game has no extracted qualitative factors — we don't invent factors without a basis.
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies Preview - 07/24/2026
- Where to watch New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies: TV channel, start time, streaming for July 24
- What channel is Phillies-Yankees on Friday? How to stream on Apple TV+
- Yankees' Mason Miller Report Should Give Fans Plenty of Hope
- MLB HOME RUN LEADER KYLE SCHWARBER AND PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES HOST 2026 ALL-STAR BEN RICE AND NEW YORK YANKEES ON SUNDAY NIGHT BASEBALL THIS SUNDAY, JULY 26, ON NBC AND PEACOCK
- Yankees visit the Phillies to begin 3-game series
- New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions
- Yankees vs Phillies Prediction: Expert picks and odds for the next Yankees' game series
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives New York Yankees a 67% chance to win (Home 33% · Away 67%). MLB · 2026-07-25 07:45 KST.
How was the 33% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 33%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.