Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets
LADAwayLos Angeles Dodgers78%
@NYMHomeNew York Mets22%
Model PickLos Angeles Dodgers 78%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 1 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects a Los Angeles Dodgers victory, assigning them a 79% win probability against the New York Mets. This prediction is primarily driven by the Dodgers' superior 'Pythagorean Expectation' and 'Team OBP', though 'Home Advantage' could favor the Mets. The edge against the market is currently uncalculated.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 22% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation-8.7
Season Win%-3.6
Last 10 Games Form-1.2
Home/Away Split-2.5
Team OBP-5
Team SLG-3.1
Team ERA-4.6
Team WHIP-2.9
Starting Pitcher Matchup+0.6
Baseline 50% → final home win21.5%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | New York Mets at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 43.5% (419 RS/483 RA) vs Away 65.4% (535/378) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 43-60 (.417) vs Away 65-38 (.631) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 4-6 vs Away 5-5 · Home L1 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 21-28 · away team away 34-19 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .304 vs Away .341 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .383 vs Away .432 (OPS .687/.773) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 4.23 vs Away 3.55 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.31 vs Away 1.14 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Sean Manaea (ERA 4.74) vs Away Roki Sasaki (ERA 4.98) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .275 · K 861 · BB 324 / Away BABIP .301 · K 816 · BB 408 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.54 · HR9 1.12 / Away K/BB 2.99 · HR9 1.13 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 1 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · White House Visit After WS Win
The LA Dodgers recently visited the White House as the reigning World Series champions. This event could either boost team morale or contribute to player fatigue, impacting their performance.
Basis: LLM · news · Trump hosts World Series champion LA Dodgers at th
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Live Stream: How to Watch MLB
- Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets Preview - 07/24/2026
- Dodgers Announce Starting Pitchers for Series vs New York Mets
- Dodgers vs. Mets (Jul 24, 2026) Pregame
- Dodgers vs. Mets (11 Jul, 2027) Live Score
- Los Angeles Dodgers 8 - New York Yankees 2: Final score, results, recap, box score, stats
- Dodgers on Deck: Friday, July 24 at Mets
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets - Boxscore - Live Score - July 24, 2026
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Los Angeles Dodgers a 78% chance to win (Home 22% · Away 78%). MLB · 2026-07-25 08:10 KST.
How was the 21.5% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 21.5%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.