Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees
PPAwayPittsburgh Pirates32%
@NYYHomeNew York Yankees68%
Model PickNew York Yankees 68%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects the New York Yankees with a 68% win probability, significantly higher than the Pittsburgh Pirates' 33%. This forecast is primarily driven by the Yankees' superior 'Team ERA' and 'Starting Pitcher Matchup' advantage, coupled with 'Home Advantage'. However, the Yankees' lower 'Team OBP' presents a key swing risk. The market edge for this pick is currently uncalculated.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 68% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation+1.9
Season Win%+0.8
Home/Away Split+0.4
Team OBP-3.7
Team SLG-0.3
Team ERA+7.6
Team WHIP+3.1
Starting Pitcher Matchup+5.3
Baseline 50% → final home win67.5%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | New York Yankees at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 59.3% (475 RS/387 RA) vs Away 54.5% (538/487) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 56-44 (.560) vs Away 52-49 (.515) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 6-4 vs Away 6-4 · Home W2 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 25-22 · away team away 25-25 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .316 vs Away .341 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .423 vs Away .427 (OPS .739/.768) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 3.42 vs Away 4.30 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.19 vs Away 1.32 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Max Fried (ERA 3.21) vs Away Bubba Chandler (ERA 4.77) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .278 · K 899 · BB 375 / Away BABIP .324 · K 956 · BB 376 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.89 · HR9 1.01 / Away K/BB 2.55 · HR9 1.06 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors None
This game has no extracted qualitative factors — we don't invent factors without a basis.
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Yankees Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 07/20/2026
- New York Yankees vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: Ryan Weathers vs. Braxton Ashcraft
- How to watch Pirates vs. Yankees: TV channel and streaming options for July 21
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees Live Stream: How to Watch MLB
- Where to watch Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees: TV channel, start time, streaming for July 21
- Pirates vs. Yankees Game Canceled, Make-Up Date Announced
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees: Game Highlights
- Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Yankees Preview - 07/20/2026
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives New York Yankees a 68% chance to win (Home 68% · Away 32%). MLB · 2026-07-23 08:05 KST.
How was the 67.5% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 67.5%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.