Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies
LADAwayLos Angeles Dodgers74%
@PPHomePhiladelphia Phillies26%
Model PickLos Angeles Dodgers 74%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 3 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects a 75% win probability for the Los Angeles Dodgers, significantly higher than the Philadelphia Phillies' 26%. This projection is primarily driven by the Dodgers' superior 'Pythagorean Expectation' (-6.5 deltaPct) and 'Team OBP' (-5.5 deltaPct). However, 'Home Advantage' (2.5 deltaPct) presents a key swing risk that could favor the Phillies. The market edge for this game is currently uncalculated.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 26% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation-6.5
Season Win%-1.4
Last 10 Games Form+1.2
Home/Away Split-1.3
Team OBP-5.5
Team SLG-2
Team ERA-5.4
Team WHIP-3.6
Starting Pitcher Matchup-2.6
Baseline 50% → final home win25.5%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Philadelphia Phillies at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 48.9% (443 RS/454 RA) vs Away 65.2% (526/373) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 56-46 (.549) vs Away 64-38 (.627) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 5-5 vs Away 4-6 · Home L1 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 27-24 · away team away 33-19 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .303 vs Away .341 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .402 vs Away .430 (OPS .705/.771) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 4.22 vs Away 3.53 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.31 vs Away 1.14 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Aaron Nola (ERA 5.68) vs Away Eric Lauer (ERA 4.81) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .280 · K 904 · BB 299 / Away BABIP .300 · K 809 · BB 404 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 3.36 · HR9 1.22 / Away K/BB 2.99 · HR9 1.12 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 3 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Phillies' Hot Bats
The Philadelphia Phillies' offense exploded for 10 runs in their last game against the Dodgers, indicating a strong offensive rhythm.
Basis: LLM · news · Phillies 10-7 Dodgers (Jul 20, 2026) Game Recap
Qualitative · Dodgers' Losing Streak Pressure
The Los Angeles Dodgers have suffered consecutive losses to the Phillies, potentially facing increased psychological pressure to break their losing streak.
Basis: LLM · news · Phillies 10-7 Dodgers (Jul 20, 2026) Game Recap
Qualitative · Pitching Matchup Announced
Both the Dodgers and Phillies have announced their starting pitchers for this 'heavyweight series,' suggesting strategic preparation from both sides.
Basis: LLM · news · Dodgers Announce Starting Pitchers for Heavyweight
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 07/21/2026
- Phillies 10-7 Dodgers (Jul 20, 2026) Game Recap
- Dodgers, Phillies Announce New Start Time for Tuesday's Game
- Where to watch Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies: TV channel, start time, streaming for July 21
- Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 07/20/2026
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies Live Stream: How to Watch MLB
- Watch Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
- Gamethread 7/21: Phillies vs Dodgers
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Los Angeles Dodgers a 74% chance to win (Home 26% · Away 74%). MLB · 2026-07-23 07:40 KST.
How was the 25.5% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 25.5%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.