Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros
MMAwayMiami Marlins70%
@HAHomeHouston Astros30%
Model PickMiami Marlins 70%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 2 qualitative
The model favors Miami Marlins at 70% — a clear favorite. The main drivers are Starting Pitcher Matchup, Team ERA, offset by Home Advantage.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 30% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation-2.5
Season Win%-0.8
Home/Away Split+0.6
Team OBP-1.9
Team SLG+0.2
Team ERA-6.1
Team WHIP-3.6
Starting Pitcher Matchup-8.7
Baseline 50% → final home win29.8%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Houston Astros at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 45.3% (463 RS/513 RA) vs Away 51.6% (452/436) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 48-54 (.471) vs Away 52-49 (.515) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 3-7 vs Away 3-7 · Home W1 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 24-27 · away team away 21-29 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .315 vs Away .328 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .411 vs Away .408 (OPS .726/.736) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 4.75 vs Away 4.05 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.40 vs Away 1.25 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Tatsuya Imai (ERA 6.06) vs Away Tyler Phillips (ERA 3.48) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .277 · K 831 · BB 339 / Away BABIP .301 · K 824 · BB 341 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.00 · HR9 1.40 / Away K/BB 2.46 · HR9 1.01 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 2 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Road Losing Streak Pressure
The Miami Marlins are currently on a road losing streak and will be highly motivated to snap it against the Houston Astros.
Basis: LLM · news · Marlins look to break road losing streak
Qualitative · Offensive Momentum
The Houston Astros' offense exploded in the previous game with Jeremy Peña's grand slam and Yordan Alvarez's two homers, which could carry over positive momentum into the next game.
Basis: LLM · news · Jeremy Peña's grand slam, Yordan Alvarez's 2 homer
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Miami Marlins at Houston Astros Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 07/20/2026
- Marlins vs. Astros (Jul 20, 2026) Pregame
- Astros vs. Miami Series Primer with Marlins Voice Jack McMullen
- Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros Live Stream: How to Watch MLB
- Jeremy Peña's grand slam, Yordan Alvarez's 2 homers power Astros past Marlins
- Where to watch Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros: TV channel, start time, streaming for July 21
- Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros: Game Highlights
- Miami Marlins at Houston Astros - MLB Game Summary - Jul 21, 2026 | USA TODAY
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Miami Marlins a 70% chance to win (Home 30% · Away 70%). MLB · 2026-07-22 09:10 KST.
How was the 29.8% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 29.8%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.