Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies
LADAwayLos Angeles Dodgers69%
@PPHomePhiladelphia Phillies31%
Model PickLos Angeles Dodgers 69%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 3 qualitative
The model favors Los Angeles Dodgers at 69% — a clear favorite. The main drivers are Pythagorean Expectation, Team OBP, offset by Home Advantage.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 31% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation-6.5
Season Win%-1.2
Last 10 Games Form+2.5
Home/Away Split-1.1
Team OBP-5.6
Team SLG-2
Team ERA-5.5
Team WHIP-3.9
Starting Pitcher Matchup+1.8
Baseline 50% → final home win31%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Philadelphia Phillies at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 49.0% (442 RS/452 RA) vs Away 65.2% (524/372) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 56-45 (.554) vs Away 63-38 (.624) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 6-4 vs Away 4-6 · Home W1 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 27-23 · away team away 32-19 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .304 vs Away .342 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .403 vs Away .431 (OPS .707/.773) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 4.24 vs Away 3.56 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.32 vs Away 1.14 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Zack Wheeler (ERA 2.13) vs Away Justin Wrobleski (ERA 2.69) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .280 · K 893 · BB 298 / Away BABIP .301 · K 798 · BB 404 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 3.32 · HR9 1.23 / Away K/BB 2.97 · HR9 1.13 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 3 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Phillies Prospect Call-Up
The Philadelphia Phillies have called up their top pitching prospect for the series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, potentially injecting new energy into the team.
Basis: LLM · news · Philadelphia Phillies Promoting Top Pitching Prosp
Qualitative · Dodgers Key Batters Out
The Dodgers' lineup against the Phillies sees Kyle Tucker and Max Muncy out, with Mookie Betts dropped in the order. This could significantly impact their offensive production.
Basis: LLM · news · Dodgers Lineup vs Phillies: Kyle Tucker and Max Mu
Qualitative · Dodgers Pitching Shuffle
The Los Angeles Dodgers have announced their starting pitchers for the heavyweight series against the Phillies, indicating a strategic shift in their rotation.
Basis: LLM · news · Dodgers Announce Starting Pitchers for Heavyweight
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies Game Story, Scores/Highlights - 07/20/2026
- Phillies 10-7 Dodgers (Jul 20, 2026) Game Recap
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies Live Stream: How to Watch MLB
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies Odds, Spread, and Total
- Watch Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
- Dodgers Announce Starting Pitchers for Heavyweight Series vs Phillies
- Dodgers vs. Phillies (22 Apr, 2027) Live Score
- Philadelphia Phillies Promoting Top Pitching Prospect For Los Angeles Dodgers Series
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Los Angeles Dodgers a 69% chance to win (Home 31% · Away 69%). MLB · 2026-07-22 07:40 KST.
How was the 31% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 31%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.