D.C. United @ FC Cincinnati
DUAwayD.C. United28%
@FCHomeFC Cincinnati46%
Model PickFC Cincinnati 46%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 3 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We favor FC Cincinnati to win, driven primarily by their 'Season Form (record)' and 'Attack (goals/game)'. However, the negative impact of 'Defense (goals against/game)' remains a key risk, and our model does not consistently outperform the market over the long term.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts D.C. United vs FC Cincinnati by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 46% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Season Form (record)+5.9
Attack (goals/game)+5.6
Defense (goals against/game)-4
Shots on Target %+1.2
Baseline 50% → final home win62.5%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 46%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | FC Cincinnati at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home FC Cincinnati 8-7-7 vs Away D.C. United 5-10-7 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home LDWDL vs Away DLLDD (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 2.23 vs Away 1.27 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 2.32 vs Away 1.64 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 43.46% vs Away 34.66% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 17.1% vs Away 11.8% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 50.34% vs Away 39.41% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 85.46% vs Away 75.15% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 65.97% vs Away 64.32% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 3 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Matt Miazga's Sudden Departure
FC Cincinnati parted ways with key defender Matt Miazga just before the D.C. United clash, forcing an immediate tactical reshuffle in their backline.
Basis: LLM · news · FC Cincinnati parts ways with Matt Miazga ahead of
Qualitative · Cincinnati Seeking Form Rejuvenation
FC Cincinnati enters the match highly motivated to rejuvenate their recent form and establish a better tactical balance on the pitch.
Basis: LLM · news · FC Cincinnati hope to rejuvenate their form agains
Qualitative · Push for Better Playoff Seeding
FC Cincinnati aims to secure crucial points in their first meeting of the season with D.C. United to improve their Eastern Conference playoff positioning.
Basis: LLM · news · FC Cincinnati looks to improve playoff position in
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Match Preview: D.C. United at FC Cincinnati | Saturday, September 5, 2026
- MATCHDAY PREVIEW presented by Kiesland | The Orange and Blue return home to face D.C. United at TQL Stadium
- FC Cincinnati in search of better balance vs. D.C. United
- FC Cincinnati hope to rejuvenate their form against D.C. United
- FC Cincinnati looks to improve playoff position in first meeting with D.C. United
- FC Cincinnati parts ways with Matt Miazga ahead of D.C. United game
- TUNE IN | FC Cincinnati vs D.C. United
- Cincinnati takes on D.C. United in Eastern Conference action
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
D.C. United vs FC Cincinnati — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives FC Cincinnati a 46% chance to win (Home 46% · Draw 26% · Away 28%). MLS · 2026-09-06 08:30 KST.
How was the 62.5% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 62.5%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.