San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers
SDPAwaySan Diego Padres33%
@LADHomeLos Angeles Dodgers67%
Model PickLos Angeles Dodgers 67%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 2 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We project a Los Angeles Dodgers victory with a 67% probability, though the edge against the market is uncalculated. The primary drivers supporting this pick are 'Pythagorean Expectation' and 'Team WHIP', where the Dodgers hold a distinct advantage. However, a negative signal in 'Last 10 Games Form' remains the key swing risk that could disrupt this projection.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 67% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation+3.9
Season Win%+1
Last 10 Games Form-2.5
Home/Away Split+1.9
Team OBP+2.9
Team SLG+1.9
Team ERA+2.6
Team WHIP+3.1
Baseline 50% → final home win67.4%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Los Angeles Dodgers at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 62.7% (780 RS/587 RA) vs Away 52.8% (690/649) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 96-60 (.615) vs Away 87-69 (.558) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 7-3 vs Away 9-1 · Home W4 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 50-28 · away team away 38-40 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .339 vs Away .319 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .426 vs Away .400 (OPS .765/.719) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 3.62 vs Away 3.94 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.15 vs Away 1.29 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home TBD (ERA ?) vs Away Michael King (ERA 3.03) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .297 · K 1215 · BB 607 / Away BABIP .286 · K 1257 · BB 536 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 3.08 · HR9 1.11 / Away K/BB 2.40 · HR9 1.13 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 2 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Dodgers Boosted by Key Returns
The Los Angeles Dodgers are expected to receive a massive boost for the Padres series with the anticipated returns of Shohei Ohtani, Roki Sasaki, and Andy Pages.
Basis: LLM · news · Dodgers Expect Ohtani, Pages and Sasaki Back for P
Qualitative · Andy Pages Set to Return
Outfielder Andy Pages has received a major update indicating his imminent return to the lineup just in time for the crucial series against San Diego.
Basis: LLM · news · Los Angeles Dodgers Get Major Andy Pages Update Ah
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers Preview - 09/22/2026
- San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers - Where to Watch, Stream Info, TV Channel, and Live Updates (September 22, 2026)
- Dodgers on Deck: Tuesday, September 22 vs. Padres
- Padres vs. Dodgers - Live Score - September 22, 2026
- How to Watch Padres vs. Dodgers: Streaming & TV on Sept. 22
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
- Dodgers Expected to Get 3 Huge Reinforcements for Padres Series
- Los Angeles Dodgers Get Major Andy Pages Update Ahead of Padres Series
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Los Angeles Dodgers a 67% chance to win (Home 67% · Away 33%). MLB · 2026-09-23 11:10 KST.
How was the 67.4% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 67.4%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.