Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees
TBRAwayTampa Bay Rays47%
@NYYHomeNew York Yankees53%
Model PickNew York Yankees 53%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 3 qualitative · 1 folklore
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects the New York Yankees with a 53% win probability, giving them a slight edge over the Tampa Bay Rays (47%). This projection is primarily driven by the Yankees' superior 'Team ERA' (deltaPct 4.2) and 'Home Advantage' (deltaPct 2.5), though the Rays show better 'Last 10 Games Form' (deltaPct -2.5) and 'Team OBP' (deltaPct -2.5). With no calculated edge against the market, it's unclear if this pick offers value.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 53% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Pythagorean Expectation+1.6
Season Win%-0.7
Last 10 Games Form-2.5
Home/Away Split+0.3
Team OBP-2.5
Team SLG+0.4
Team ERA+4.2
Team WHIP-1
Starting Pitcher Matchup+0.3
Baseline 50% → final home win52.7%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | New York Yankees at home — MLB historical home win rate ~.535 (ballpark familiarity, no travel) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pythagorean Expectation | Home 59.6% (713 RS/576 RA) vs Away 55.7% (707/624) — strength from runs scored/allowed | MLB StatsAPI |
| Season Win% | Home 89-66 (.574) vs Away 95-60 (.613) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Last 10 Games Form | Home 6-4 vs Away 8-2 · Home L2 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Home/Away Split | Home team home 42-32 · away team away 40-34 | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team OBP | Home .311 vs Away .328 — foundation of scoring | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team SLG | Home .410 vs Away .404 (OPS .721/.732) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team ERA | Home 3.22 vs Away 3.70 — lower is better | MLB StatsAPI |
| Team WHIP | Home 1.17 vs Away 1.13 — baserunners allowed per inning (lower is better) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | Home Max Fried (ERA 2.63) vs Away Drew Rasmussen (ERA 2.72) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Hitting Detail (BABIP, K, BB) | Home BABIP .279 · K 1415 · BB 554 / Away BABIP .296 · K 1085 · BB 495 (BABIP is luck-driven → not factored into probability) | MLB StatsAPI |
| Pitching Detail (K/BB, HR9) | Home K/BB 2.98 · HR9 1.03 / Away K/BB 3.28 · HR9 1.25 | MLB StatsAPI |
Qualitative & folklore factors 4 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Rivalry Clinch
The Tampa Bay Rays have the opportunity to clinch the AL East title on the New York Yankees' home turf. This scenario could significantly motivate the Yankees.
Basis: LLM · news · Rays Can Clinch AL East With Win Against New York
Qualitative · Revenge Game
Yankees' José Caballero has expressed a strong desire to make the Rays 'suffer' for trading him, indicating high personal motivation for this matchup.
Basis: LLM · news · Yankees’ José Caballero still wants to make Rays ‘
Qualitative · Crucial Series
This game is part of a crucial four-game series for both the Yankees and Rays, holding significant implications for their playoff aspirations and division title race.
Basis: LLM · news · New York Yankees Host Tampa Bay Rays In Crucial 4
Folklore · New Uniform Boost
The Tampa Bay Rays are debuting their new fan-voted road uniforms against the Yankees. This fresh look could provide a morale boost for the team.
Basis: LLM · news · Rays' new road uniforms have fresh take on a famil
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Rays' new road uniforms have fresh take on a familiar look
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: Series Preview
- New York Yankees Host Tampa Bay Rays In Crucial 4 Game Series
- Yankees will have to watch Rays celebrate AL East title on home field
- Rays Can Clinch AL East With Win Against New York Yankees
- Tampa Bay Rays unveil fan-voted road jerseys ahead of Yankees matchup
- Rays, Yankees each face clinching scenarios in doubleheader
- Yankees could have greater need with destiny out of their hands in tall Rays task
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives New York Yankees a 53% chance to win (Home 53% · Away 47%). MLB · 2026-09-23 08:05 KST.
How was the 52.7% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 52.7%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.