New York Liberty @ Toronto Tempo
NYLAwayNew York Liberty70%
@TTHomeToronto Tempo30%
Model PickNew York Liberty 70%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 9 structured · 2 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
Our model projects a 71% win probability for the New York Liberty, making them the recommended pick, though the edge against the market is uncalculated. The primary drivers for this prediction are the Liberty's advantages in '시즌 폼(전적) / Season Form (record)' and '수비 효율 DRtg / Defensive Rating (DRtg)'. However, Toronto's '홈 어드밴티지 / Home Advantage' remains the key swing risk, and users should note that our model does not beat the market over the long term.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts New York Liberty vs Toronto Tempo by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 9 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 30% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Season Form (record)-10.2
Home/Away Split-2.8
Offensive Rating (ORtg)+0.7
Defensive Rating (DRtg)-8.9
Effective FG% (eFG%)-1.1
Turnover Rate (TOV%)-0.7
Baseline 50% → final home win29.5%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 9 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Toronto Tempo at home — WNBA home-field edge applied | ESPN WNBA |
| Season Form (record) | Home Toronto Tempo 11-30 vs Away New York Liberty 25-16 | ESPN WNBA |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record 7-14 · away team's away record 11-10 | ESPN WNBA |
| Offensive Rating (ORtg) | Home 96.4 vs Away 95.4 — points per 100 possessions (pace-adjusted true offense; higher is better) | ESPN WNBA |
| Defensive Rating (DRtg) | Home 105.1 vs Away 92 — points allowed per 100 possessions (lower is stronger defense) | ESPN WNBA |
| Effective FG% (eFG%) | Home 51.1% vs Away 53.6% — shooting efficiency weighting made threes 1.5x (pro shooting metric) | ESPN WNBA |
| Turnover Rate (TOV%) | Home 15.5% vs Away 14.4% — turnovers per 100 possessions (lower is better) | ESPN WNBA |
| Offensive Rebound % (OREB%) | Home 22.4% vs Away 22.5% — reclaiming missed shots (creates second-chance points) | ESPN WNBA |
| Pace (Tempo) | Home 89.5 vs Away 94.2 possessions/game — game speed (shared context for both teams, outcome-neutral) | ESPN WNBA |
Qualitative & folklore factors 2 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · Tempo's Home Finale Motivation
The Toronto Tempo are highly motivated to close out their final home game of the season on a high note as they host the powerhouse New York Liberty.
Basis: LLM · news · Tempo seek to close home slate on high note vs. Li
Qualitative · Playoff Tune-Up for Liberty Stars
Ahead of the upcoming playoffs, the New York Liberty need to fine-tune their execution and see strong performances from key stars like Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu.
Basis: LLM · news · what do the Minnesota Lynx and New York Liberty ne
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Liberty vs. Tempo - Live Score - September 20, 2026
- Experts release Liberty vs. Tempo WNBA predictions: Underdog odds, Breanna Stewart & Sabrina Ionescu props
- WNBA games today: Picks and predictions for Lynx vs. Liberty clash and more
- Game Recap: Indiana Fever 103, Toronto Tempo 85 (09/18/2026)
- New York Liberty @ Toronto Tempo Odds
- Tempo seek to close home slate on high note vs. Liberty
- How to watch Caitlin Clark, Fever in their return from FIBA World Cup
- WNBA games today: Schedule, times, how to watch for Sept. 20
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
New York Liberty vs Toronto Tempo — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives New York Liberty a 70% chance to win (Home 30% · Away 70%). WNBA · 2026-09-21 04:00 KST.
How was the 29.5% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 9 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 29.5%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.