Las Vegas Aces @ Indiana Fever
LVAAwayLas Vegas Aces51%
@IFHomeIndiana Fever49%
Model PickLas Vegas Aces 51%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 9 structured
The model favors Las Vegas Aces at 51% — essentially a toss-up. The main drivers are Offensive Rating (ORtg), Season Form (record), offset by Defensive Rating (DRtg).
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Las Vegas Aces vs Indiana Fever by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 9 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 49% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Season Form (record)-2
Home/Away Split-0.9
Offensive Rating (ORtg)-8.4
Defensive Rating (DRtg)+8.1
Effective FG% (eFG%)+0.2
Turnover Rate (TOV%)-0.3
Baseline 50% → final home win49.2%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 9 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Indiana Fever at home — WNBA home-field edge applied | ESPN WNBA |
| Season Form (record) | Home Indiana Fever 19-11 vs Away Las Vegas Aces 21-9 | ESPN WNBA |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record 11-5 · away team's away record 12-4 | ESPN WNBA |
| Offensive Rating (ORtg) | Home 98.8 vs Away 110.2 — points per 100 possessions (pace-adjusted true offense; higher is better) | ESPN WNBA |
| Defensive Rating (DRtg) | Home 92.8 vs Away 103.7 — points allowed per 100 possessions (lower is stronger defense) | ESPN WNBA |
| Effective FG% (eFG%) | Home 56% vs Away 55.5% — shooting efficiency weighting made threes 1.5x (pro shooting metric) | ESPN WNBA |
| Turnover Rate (TOV%) | Home 14.5% vs Away 14.1% — turnovers per 100 possessions (lower is better) | ESPN WNBA |
| Offensive Rebound % (OREB%) | Home 23.2% vs Away 21.3% — reclaiming missed shots (creates second-chance points) | ESPN WNBA |
| Pace (Tempo) | Home 97.7 vs Away 83.5 possessions/game — game speed (shared context for both teams, outcome-neutral) | ESPN WNBA |
Qualitative & folklore factors None
This game has no extracted qualitative factors — we don't invent factors without a basis.
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- WNBA game: Indiana Fever, Caitlin Clark vs Las Vegas Aces, A'ja Wilson start time, stream
- Aces vs. Fever (Aug 6, 2026) Pregame
- Where to watch Caitlin Clark, Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces
- How to watch Caitlin Clark, Indiana Fever vs Minnesota Lynx today
- How to Watch Fever vs Aces: Indiana Remain Among WNBA's Best
- Indiana Fever get bad injury news ahead of Aces game
- How to Watch Indiana Fever vs Portland Fire: Live Stream WNBA, TV Channel
- Indiana Fever Confirm Caitlin Clark’s Injury Status for Aces Game
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Las Vegas Aces vs Indiana Fever — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Las Vegas Aces a 51% chance to win (Home 49% · Away 51%). WNBA · 2026-08-07 08:00 KST.
How was the 49.2% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 9 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 49.2%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.