Seattle Storm @ New York Liberty
SSAwaySeattle Storm22%
@NYLHomeNew York Liberty78%
Model PickNew York Liberty 78%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 9 structured
The model favors New York Liberty at 78% — a clear favorite. The main drivers are Season Form (record), Home/Away Split.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Seattle Storm vs New York Liberty by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 9 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 78% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Season Form (record)+11.4
Home/Away Split+6.9
Offensive Rating (ORtg)+2
Defensive Rating (DRtg)+3.1
Effective FG% (eFG%)+1.7
Turnover Rate (TOV%)+0.6
Baseline 50% → final home win78.2%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 9 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | New York Liberty at home — WNBA home-field edge applied | ESPN WNBA |
| Season Form (record) | Home New York Liberty 18-13 vs Away Seattle Storm 6-26 | ESPN WNBA |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record 9-5 · away team's away record 2-15 | ESPN WNBA |
| Offensive Rating (ORtg) | Home 93.8 vs Away 90.6 — points per 100 possessions (pace-adjusted true offense; higher is better) | ESPN WNBA |
| Defensive Rating (DRtg) | Home 91.3 vs Away 96.7 — points allowed per 100 possessions (lower is stronger defense) | ESPN WNBA |
| Effective FG% (eFG%) | Home 54.1% vs Away 49.4% — shooting efficiency weighting made threes 1.5x (pro shooting metric) | ESPN WNBA |
| Turnover Rate (TOV%) | Home 14.6% vs Away 15.6% — turnovers per 100 possessions (lower is better) | ESPN WNBA |
| Offensive Rebound % (OREB%) | Home 22.5% vs Away 21.1% — reclaiming missed shots (creates second-chance points) | ESPN WNBA |
| Pace (Tempo) | Home 96 vs Away 91.2 possessions/game — game speed (shared context for both teams, outcome-neutral) | ESPN WNBA |
Qualitative & folklore factors None
This game has no extracted qualitative factors — we don't invent factors without a basis.
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
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Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Seattle Storm vs New York Liberty — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives New York Liberty a 78% chance to win (Home 78% · Away 22%). WNBA · 2026-08-06 08:00 KST.
How was the 78.2% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 9 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 78.2%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.