Phoenix Mercury @ Atlanta Dream
PMAwayPhoenix Mercury33%
@ADHomeAtlanta Dream67%
Model PickAtlanta Dream 67%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 9 structured
The model favors Atlanta Dream at 67% — a clear favorite. The main drivers are Season Form (record), Defensive Rating (DRtg).
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts Phoenix Mercury vs Atlanta Dream by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 9 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 67% home win was derived
Home Advantage+2.5
Season Form (record)+6.9
Home/Away Split+3.3
Offensive Rating (ORtg)+1
Defensive Rating (DRtg)+3.7
Effective FG% (eFG%)-0.5
Turnover Rate (TOV%)+0.4
Baseline 50% → final home win67.3%
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 9 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Atlanta Dream at home — WNBA home-field edge applied | ESPN WNBA |
| Season Form (record) | Home Atlanta Dream 18-11 vs Away Phoenix Mercury 12-19 | ESPN WNBA |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record 10-5 · away team's away record 7-9 | ESPN WNBA |
| Offensive Rating (ORtg) | Home 96.6 vs Away 95.1 — points per 100 possessions (pace-adjusted true offense; higher is better) | ESPN WNBA |
| Defensive Rating (DRtg) | Home 93.1 vs Away 98.6 — points allowed per 100 possessions (lower is stronger defense) | ESPN WNBA |
| Effective FG% (eFG%) | Home 49.4% vs Away 50.4% — shooting efficiency weighting made threes 1.5x (pro shooting metric) | ESPN WNBA |
| Turnover Rate (TOV%) | Home 14.1% vs Away 14.6% — turnovers per 100 possessions (lower is better) | ESPN WNBA |
| Offensive Rebound % (OREB%) | Home 28.1% vs Away 19.4% — reclaiming missed shots (creates second-chance points) | ESPN WNBA |
| Pace (Tempo) | Home 92.5 vs Away 88.6 possessions/game — game speed (shared context for both teams, outcome-neutral) | ESPN WNBA |
Qualitative & folklore factors None
This game has no extracted qualitative factors — we don't invent factors without a basis.
12 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Phoenix Mercury vs Atlanta Dream Aug 5, 2026 Game Summary
- Mercury vs. Dream (Aug 5, 2026) Pregame
- Phoenix Mercury @ Atlanta Dream: Live game updates, stats, play-by-play
- WNBA: Angel Reese, Atlanta Dream ready for Barbie Game
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- How to watch Las Vegas Aces-Atlanta Dream WNBA game livestream today
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
Phoenix Mercury vs Atlanta Dream — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives Atlanta Dream a 67% chance to win (Home 67% · Away 33%). WNBA · 2026-08-06 08:00 KST.
How was the 67.3% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 9 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 67.3%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.