St. Louis CITY SC @ Red Bull New York
SLCSAwaySt. Louis CITY SC38%
@RBNYHomeRed Bull New York36%
Model PickSt. Louis CITY SC 38%Market edge — disclosed after closing odds are collectedEvidence 12 structured · 3 qualitative
AI Summary grounded in real data · zero hallucination
We favor St. Louis CITY SC to win, driven by their impressive 18-match unbeaten streak. However, the Home Advantage factor poses a significant swing risk in favor of the Red Bulls. As our model does not consistently beat the market long-term, please exercise caution.
Logistic-regression statistical model — predicts St. Louis CITY SC vs Red Bull New York by accumulating the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured metrics. Only structured metrics enter the probability; qualitative and folklore factors get a label only. Predictions are sealed with SHA-256 before the game.
Model factor contribution How the 36% home win was derived
Home Advantage+3.7
Attack (goals/game)-2.6
Defense (goals against/game)-2.9
Shots on Target %-0.1
Baseline 50% → final home win48.2%
※ This is the head-to-head home-win probability (home vs away). After carving out the 26% draw share, the 3-way home probability shown above is 36%.
Each factor's log-odds contribution accumulated · only structured metrics reflected (qualitative/folklore excluded) · each %p converts log-odds to probability, so it's non-linear — a simple sum may not exactly equal (final − baseline)
Structured metric analysis 12 metrics · fully disclosed
| Metric | Analysis (home vs away) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Home Advantage | Red Bull New York at home — MLS home-field edge applied | ESPN MLS |
| Season Form (record) | Home Red Bull New York 9-6-11 vs Away St. Louis CITY SC 12-8-6 | ESPN MLS |
| Home/Away Split | Home team's home record ? · away team's away record ? | ESPN MLS |
| Recent Form | Home WWLDL vs Away WWWDW (recent results) | ESPN MLS |
| Attack (goals/game) | Home 1.31 vs Away 1.73 — goals per game | ESPN MLS |
| Defense (goals against/game) | Home 1.85 vs Away 1.38 — goals conceded per game (lower is better) | ESPN MLS |
| Shots on Target % | Home 34.6% vs Away 35.01% — share of total shots on target (shot quality) | ESPN MLS |
| Finishing (conversion rate) | Home 11.3% vs Away 14.6% — shot-to-goal conversion (finishing efficiency) | ESPN MLS |
| Possession % | Home 52.2% vs Away 52.19% — ball control (game-control style) | ESPN MLS |
| Pass Accuracy % | Home 84% vs Away 85.63% — build-up stability | ESPN MLS |
| Tackle Success % | Home 63.68% vs Away 65.45% — pressing-defense efficiency | ESPN MLS |
| xG (Expected Goals) | Not available on ESPN's free tier — will be added when a paid xG source is connected. Currently proxied by shots on target and conversion rate | ESPN MLS |
Qualitative & folklore factors 3 factors · fully disclosed
Qualitative · St. Louis Extends 18-Game Unbeaten Streak
St. Louis CITY SC extended their impressive unbeaten run to 18 matches following a decisive 3-1 victory over Toronto FC, carrying immense tactical momentum into this fixture.
Basis: LLM · news · STL City extends unbeaten streak to 18 with win ov
Qualitative · Damion Downs Called Up to USMNT
St. Louis City SC forward Damion Downs has been named to the USMNT roster, potentially impacting the team's attacking rotation during the international window.
Basis: LLM · news · St. Louis City SC forward Damion Downs added to US
Qualitative · Playoff Push Intensifies for St. Louis
With the playoff countdown underway, St. Louis CITY SC is highly motivated to secure crucial points in the final stretch of the MLS regular season.
Basis: LLM · news · Playoff Countdown: New England Revolution, St. Lou
9 source headlines (auto-collected · basis disclosed)
- Match Report | St. Louis CITY SC Earns Three Points at Energizer Park with 3-1 Win Over Toronto FC
- Playoff Countdown: New England Revolution, St. Louis CITY mean business
- STL City extends unbeaten streak to 18 with win over Toronto
- St. Louis City SC forward Damion Downs added to USMNT roster ahead of fall friendlies
- Major League Soccer (MLS) TV Schedule: Upcoming games, dates and kick-off times
- Every MLS call-up: September & October 2026 international window
- MLS market values: Man City prospect hits another level - SKC record signing André Luiz up
- Mykhi Joyner
Frequently asked questions This game's prediction summary
St. Louis CITY SC vs Red Bull New York — who's more likely to win?
SealedSlate's logistic-regression statistical model gives St. Louis CITY SC a 38% chance to win (Home 36% · Draw 26% · Away 38%). MLS · 2026-09-27 08:30 KST.
How was the 48.2% home-win probability calculated?
Starting from a 50% baseline, we additively accumulate the log-odds contributions of 12 proven structured statistical metrics to reach the final 48.2%. Each factor's %p contribution is fully disclosed on the page; qualitative and folklore factors are not reflected in the probability.
Can this prediction be altered later?
No. Every prediction is sealed with a SHA-256 hash before the game starts and permanently recorded in the track record, making after-the-fact changes impossible. SealedSlate runs a transparent ledger that never inflates the hit rate and leaves missed predictions exactly as they were.
We don't compete on hit rate — every factor is fully disclosed and labeled. Only 📊 structured stats feed the probability (each factor's contribution shown in %p); ⚔️🔮 are context to weigh. Predictions are locked and sealed before the game — verify the hits directly on the track record.